The first business conference for the Cayman Islands this year is Cayman Business Outlook (CBO) 2013.

This year’s theme is From Evolution to Revolution: The Dramatic change in Global Politics, Economy and Technology.

The conference will be held at The Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman, on Thursday, 24^th January, 2013

The conference is due to commence at8:00 am (Registration/Coffee – Ballroom) and will be opened at 9am by H.E. Governor Duncan J.R. Taylor, CBE.

Presenters will be Salman Khan, Daniel Mitchell, Anwer J. Sunderji, Bill Emmott and William Cohen.

The U.S. economic recovery since the Great Recession has been tentative, at best, with anemic job growth. While unemployment numbers show improvement, they are

largely a result of some of the unemployed giving up their job search.  The Occupy Wall Street movement may have fizzled, but the message of income inequality resonates strongly in the US. Studies show fifty million people live at poverty and another fifty million at “near poverty”; eight million homeowners are “underwater” with home values below the mortgages they owe; unemployment hovers at around 9%.

In the meantime, the impotence of the Obama Administration to get traction on any of the significant issues plaguing the country demonstrates how dysfunctional the political system is in a country that has been the torch bearer of good governance and transparency. It is becoming evident that “Main Street” and “Wall Street” are not the only two constituents that the politicians need to manage going forward – there is a rising third segment of the poor on “Back Street”. In an election

year that is likely to show deep fissures in the country, the US Congress seems to have abandoned the notion of managing the unavoidable and avoiding the unmanageable.  But accountability for the economic mess in the US does not only rest on the legislature – the US public routinely substitutes rage for thought, immediate gratification for long-term planning and ignorance for understanding. Washington is simply providing what the public seems to want.

Elsewhere in the world, the crisis in the Eurozone seems to have been temporarily contained, but the fractures are apparent.  Political Scientists say that Germany has finally achieved its goal of economic and political dominance of Europe without firing a shot.   The German version of austerity will likely be imposed on EU member countries, and whether they stay the painful course of German style economic redemption is uncertain.  Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece are all ensnared in the “euro trap” – the inability to devalue their currencies to stimulate their economies since they have adopted the Euro. Exit from the Eurozone by desperate members is no longer a far-fetched idea, and the future of the EU will revolve around the willingness of the profligate nations to endure economic discipline that will likely set them back decades.  Without withdrawing from the Eurozone, these countries’ only hope of recovery is a severe “internal devaluation” of wages and prices so that economic competitiveness can be restored.

The restructuring and the resulting impoverishment–probably for decades– of a good part of the developed world does not auger well for global stability.  An economically weakened US will not be able to play the role of global policeman, global bank and the bastion of global democracy with the same level of robustness and energy it has displayed for many decades.  Yet there are no countries willing or able to fill the space that the US will be forced to concede over time. It is apparent that the global economy faces strong headwinds that are unlikely to abate any time soon.  It is in these unchartered waters, where the new economic reality collides with the geopolitical landscape that the greatest risk resides in coming years.

Amidst all this political and economic uncertainty, a rising   “silent majority” of citizens in countries dominated by despotic rule or undemocratic governments has underscored the power of social media in changing the political landscape.  And that is a true wild card.  Who would have thought that the newly empowered Russian middle class would stand up for free and fair elections?  Who would have remotely thought that Egyptians would rise against the tyranny of despotic leaders and achieve free parliamentary elections? Who would have imagined, even a few years ago, how an image or a tweet flashed around the world could overturn decades-old systems? And the real question for these newly-liberated citizens is: Now what?

This year’s CBO theme– “Future World – How Politics, Economics and Technology Will Shape Our Lives” — will attempt to highlight some of the key trends that will shape our economic and political future.

The programme includes a Local Panel Debate that includes Tim Ridley and The Cayman Islands Auditor General Alastair Swarbrick.

To register and for more details go to:

https://www.caymanbusinessoutlook.com/