From NHC

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE
GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT
MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME
FRAME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.4N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z 17.9N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0600Z 18.4N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1800Z 18.8N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/1800Z 19.5N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

 

 

 

OFFICIAL PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST PREPARED BY THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Valid for the morning of JUNE 17th 2013 through the morning of JUNE 18th 2013.

SYNOPSIS:

Decreasing cloudiness is expected over the Cayman Islands as the tropical wave over the western Caribbean moves away from the Cayman area.

THE FORECAST:

Today: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers and possible thunder. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east to northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

TIDES:

Today: Low 10:41 a.m. High 5:42 p.m. Low 4:17 p.m.

Tomorrow: High 10:43 a.m. Low 11:33 a.m. High 6:33 p.m.

SUNSET: 7:05 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:48 a.m. Tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: is for partly cloudy skies through Wednesday morning.

Note: On Sunday (16) the Cayman Islands National Weather Service (CINWS) recorded winds of around 35 mph at the Owen Roberts International Airport Sunday afternoon (16 June). It lasted for about 15 minutes.

A water spout was spotted around 2pm.