Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nate, located near the Mississippi coast.

1. Shower activity associated with a nearly stationary low pressure
system located about 750 miles southwest of the Azores is limited,
and this system has lost some organization during the past few
hours. However, this low still has the potential to become a
subtropical cyclone today before environmental conditions become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

NATE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA… …RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the
Keesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane
Hunters. The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986
mb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC.
Since that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface
observations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have
decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60
kt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is
anticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about
36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model.

Radar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast
at 20 kt. Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a
north-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed
for the next 2 days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas
of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from
Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.
Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected
along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.

2. Nate’s fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm
conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 31.5N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart