iLocal News Archives

6 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H/cane, 2 Dist.


6 Sep Thu 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located near the Mississippi-Arkansas border.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in
organization since yesterday, and there are no indications yet that
the system has a well-defined center of circulation. However,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Some development of this system is anticipated after
that time, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the
Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Public Advisories on Gordon are issued by the Weather Prediction
Center under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the
web at

Forecaster Berg



Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence. Since the last
advisory, the cloud pattern has become more asymmetric, and cloud
tops surrounding the ragged eye have warmed. AMSR imagery around
0430 UTC indicated that the hurricane’s eye is tilted slightly
southwest to northeast with height, but the low- to mid-level
inner-core was mostly intact. Based on an average of Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been lowered
to 100 kt, and objective estimates are even lower.

Given the wind shear and current appearance of Florence, additional
weakening in the short-term seems likely, and all of the intensity
guidance agrees. From 24-72 h, the spread increases with the
statistical models generally showing continued gradual weakening for
another day or two, while the dynamical models show little change or
slight restrengthening. By day 5, all of the guidance calls for
Florence to restrengthen. The guidance envelope and consensus is
lower with this model cycle, but the NHC intensity forecast has only
been adjusted slightly lower, mainly in the first 72 h of the
forecast. The official forecast is now a little above the IVCN
intensity consensus and HCCA at most forecast hours, generally
favoring the stronger solution of the dynamical models.

Florence has continued to track northwestward, and the initial
motion is 315/10 kt. The cyclone is still forecast to gradually
turn westward over the next 48 h, in response to a building
mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a mid-latitude
trough over the northwestern Atlantic could create enough of a
weakness in the ridge to steer the hurricane farther north, closer
to Bermuda, as shown by the latest GFS. However, the ECMWF and
UKMET suggest that the ridge will not be significantly affected, and
Florence will move more westward. The ensembles from the GFS and
ECMWF do not clearly favor one solution over another, and in fact
many members track Florence somewhere in-between. While little
change was made to the previous forecast and the new official track
forecast remains close to the various consensus aids, the model
spread has increased and confidence in the forecast is low.

There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence’s
track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time
ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts
Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of
Florence’s eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane
will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip


INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 47.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Olivia, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The shower activity associated
with this low is gradually becoming better organized, and
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for continued
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman


Isolated showers and possible thunder will continue across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as the upper level trough interacts with a tropical wave over the Northwest Caribbean. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the west-southwest. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence. This system poses no threat to the Cayman Islands. For further information on this storm please visit


Humidity: 86%  (Same as yesterday)

UV: 11.5   EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature –   See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 90.2°F  L 79.7°F

Wind direction TODAY: E 5-10 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: SE 5-10 mph

Barometer: 1013.50 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 1.83 in    Last 24 hrs 0.01  This month:  1.46 in  0 days since rain  2 rain day in September

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 : 25.46 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in September 8.2 in.  Average temperature in September: 77°F to 90°F

in September 84°F



15%  Waning Crescent





GRAND CAYMAN SEPTEMBER 2018 – Click to enlarge


Moon info and graphic:

Atlantic satellite image:

The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.

Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at:


Mikes Weather Page:


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