Colorado State University is predicting that 2015 will be one of the least active in decades, with seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane of Category 3 or higher.

Tropical Storm Risk from the University College London is predicting a season that’s slightly quieter than average, with 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) is going in the opposite direction, predicting that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least three years and that the next three seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years. In 2015, GWO is forecasting 14 named tropical storms, with eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

These are the forecasts:

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015 FROM COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20^th century. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Despite the forecast for below-average activity, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. (as of 9 April 2015)

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline -28% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida-15% (average for last century is

31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville -15% (average

for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 6-88°W)

• 22% (average for last century is 42%

SOURCE: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2015/apr2015/apr2015.pdf

 

APRIL FORECAST UPDATE FOR ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN 2015 FROM TROPICAL STORM RISK

TSR lowers its extended range forecast and predicts Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015 will be about 45% below the long-term average. However, forecast uncertainties remain large.

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update reinforces the TSR extended range forecast and anticipates hurricane activity in 2015 will be below norm. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be about 45% below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and about 50% below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2015 and employs data through to the end of March 2015. The TSR forecast has reduced since early December 2014 due to updated climate signals indicating that the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in August-September 2015 will likely be cooler than norm and cooler than thought previously. Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013- 2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season.

There is only a 13% probability that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season ACE index will be above-average (defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>120)), a 27% likelihood it will be near- normal (defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (70 to 120) and a 60% chance it will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<70)). The 65-year period 1950-2014 is used for climatology.

The Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) is the region 10oN-20oN, 20oW-60oW between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean Lesser Antilles. A storm is defined as having formed within this region if it reached at least trop ical depression status while in the area.

There is only a 14% probability that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season ACE index will be above-average (defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>92)), a 30% likelihood it will be near- normal (defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (42 to 92) and a 56% chance it will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<42)). The 65-year period 1950-2014 is used for climatology.

There is a 25% probability that in 2015 the USA landfalling ACE index will be above average (defined as a USA ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>2.51)), a 25% likelihood it will be near-normal (defined as a USA ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (1.09 to 2.51)) and a 50% chance it will be below-normal (defined as a USA ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<1.09)). The

65-year period 1950-2014 is used for climatology.

SOURCE: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2015.pdf

 

2015 HURRICANE ZONE PREDICTIONS: STRONGER SEASON WITH THREE U.S. HOT SPOTS FROM GLOBAL WEATHER OSCILLATIONS

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years. CEO David Dilley says, “GWO has issued the most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño would not form.”

2015 hurricane season to be a little above average and more dangerous, with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and three United States Hot Spots

 

Ocala, Florida (PRWEB) January 07, 2015

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, “The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years”.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued “the most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño would not form.”

GWO issues predictions based on its “patent pending” Climate Pulse Technology developed by Mr. Dilley. GWO currently has 11 United States prediction zones from New England to Texas, and the Philippine Islands in the western Pacific. He also issues accurate predictions for El Niño events and other climate cycles.

Mr. Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.

The Atlantic Basin experiences on the average 11 to 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. GWO predicts the 2015 hurricane season to be a little above average and more dangerous, with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In addition; GWO is predicting three Hurricane Hot Spots along the United States coastline that are at high risk for hurricane activity this year, with at least 1 major hurricane likely.

When GWO predicts a high probability for hurricane conditions within one of their prediction zones, it is red-flagged as a hurricane or tropical storm “Hot Spot”. GWO’s hot spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 87 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by companies and other organizations. GWO is the only organization that predicts hurricane conditions for specific zones, and for up to 4 years in advance

SOURCE: http://www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com

 

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