June 13, 2021

Tropics could come alive next week – Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

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By Joe Cioff From Meteeorologist Joe Cioffi

June 7, 2018 joestradamus hurricane season 2018,

Joestradamus, long range forecast,

We have already seen the season’s first named storm a couple of weeks ago with Subtropical Storm Alberto. If you recall this system developed when troughing developed in the Central Gulf States and extended southward into the Northwest Caribbean. We have a similar situation that is forecast to develop across the same area over the weekend and into next week. There has been persistent disturbed weather for days in the Caribbean that extends westward into the Pacific. Tropical Storm Aletta in the Pacific was born from this and is likely to become a hurricane later today in the open waters of Pacific off the coast of Mexico. It is no threat to land. There will likely be a second tropical storm that develops over the weekend in the same general area.

The GFS has been showing something developing next week in the Western Caribbean but up until yesterday, it was standing alone. However since then we have seen the Canadian and German models show something flaring up. The European is not there yet as of last night but then again it wasn’t there at all with Alberto until the last minute. We think there is enough model support at this point to put the possibility on the table. Much like Alberto if anything does develop it is likely to move northward in the longer term. Right now though we are in purely speculative mode. No mention is being made by the National Hurricane Center as it is outside their 5 day range. We might see more support for this over the weekend.

For more on this story go to: https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/06/07/tropics-could-come-alive-next-week-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico/

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