September 20, 2020

Tropical Storm (TS) Maria expected to intensify while TS Nate remains stationary for now

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On Friday (9) morning satellite imagery indicated that convection is increasing with Tropical Storm Maria and it is expected that Maria will continue to strengthen slowly as it tracks across the northeastern Caribbean on Saturday and Saturday night. Once Maria tracks to the north of Puerto Rico on Sunday, we could see a somewhat quicker rate of intensification and Maria should become a hurricane by early this week. Maria was tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 18 to 19 mph on Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for most of the islands in the northeastern Caribbean (Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico) and tropical storm conditions are expected through Saturday across the northeastern Caribbean.

Rob Lightbown writes, “I think Maria will end up tracking further west than the track models suggest perhaps turning north at around 74 West Longitude. A trough of low pressure is forecast to push off of the US East Coast next week and this should be able to deflect Maria north and northeast away from the US East Coast.”

Predicted path for Tropical Storm Maria

Forecasters seem to have come to a conclusion as to the forecasted path of Tropical Storm Nate. They believe that Nate will track west and west-southwestward into eastern Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Satellite imagery Friday morning showed that the storm had weakened overnight with convection diminishing. Nate continues to remain stationary in its movement, however it is the belief of forecasters that it will intensify. Rob writes, “The track and global model guidance are in very good agreement that Nate will make very little northward progress and a narrow ridge of high pressure to the north of Nate will turn the storm westward over the next couple of days and Nate should come ashore near or just south of Tuxpan, Mexico on Sunday night.

“Environmental conditions are favourable for strengthening this weekend and it seems likely that Nate will become a hurricane by Saturday morning and then make landfall near Tuxpan, Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday night.”

Predicted path for Tropical Storm Nate

Both of these systems pose no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands. Regardless of that knowledge, everyone is advised to keep an eye on the weather advisories for any sudden changes in the tracks of the storms. Go to Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com or the National Hurricane Centre at www.nhn.noaa.gov/ for more information regarding these systems. iNews wishes to thank Crown Weather for their permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them.

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