September 28, 2020

Record July temperatures expected for USA. Tropics quiet

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There are at the time of writing this (Wed July 4) portions of 17 states in America under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures.

Last Friday (June 29) there was an incredible derecho event that left over 1.4 million people without power and is blamed for 23 deaths. According to wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history.

With July traditionally the hottest month of the year, July 2012 is sure to set more all-time records. Weather Underground says, “the latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 – 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

Rob Lightbown, of Crown Weather, says:

“The severe weather risk will continue throughout this week and likely through next week from the northern Plains states east-southeastward into the Great Lakes, New England, the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas.

“One excellent tool to use during the summer is to pull up a 500 millibar upper air map and find the 588 height level. Anything south of there is generally unfavorable for severe weather due to very hot air capping things off; however, anything along and north of the 588 height level is generally favorable for severe weather. I have attached a 500 millibar upper air map and have drawn out the geographical area I expect to see severe weather throughout this week.

“So, I think that severe weather will continue to be a significant problem from the Dakotas & the Chicago area east-southeastward through the Interstate 95 corridor from New England to North Carolina through at least July 10th.”

And here in the Cayman Islands all is very quiet across the entire Atlantic with no areas of concern. Three tropical waves are tracking westward: One in the east-central Caribbean and two to the east of the Lesser Antilles*. None of these three tropical waves are expected to develop.

* See Tropical Weather Outlook Map:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO…AND OVER ADJACENT WATERS.

A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH WAS REPORTED EARLIER TODAY IN A BRIEF SQUALL AT ST. CROIX. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

Cayman Islands National Weather Services says:

THURSDAY: mostly sunny skies with a 20% chance of showers. Winds will be east to northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.. Temp H89°F/L78°F.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers and thunder. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.. Temp H89°F/L78°F.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers and thunder. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate to rough with wave heights of 4 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution over open water. Temp H89°F/L78°F.

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers and thunder. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate to rough with wave heights of 4 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution over open water. Temp H89°F/L78°F.

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