October 1, 2020

Invest 95L in the eastern Atlantic heads to the west-northwest

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We are still keeping an eye on Invest 95L, in the eastern Atlantic about 600 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Rob Lightbown wrote “Environmental conditions are favourable enough for slow development during the rest of this week and this may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next couple of days or so.

“Invest 95L is forecasted to make a general west to west-northwest track over the next 2 to 3 days. After that, the potential track of this system may bring it near the northern Leeward Islands this weekend and everyone in the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands should closely monitor this system as indications are that it may affect you as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane.”

After potentially affecting the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands this weekend, this potential tropical cyclone could be pulled north and then northeastward away from the US East Coast next week due to a deep trough of low pressure over the eastern United States. This forecast is what many of us in the Caribbean are hoping for.

However, another potential track idea that will need to be watched is that this disturbance stays south and tracks into the Caribbean this weekend. This is a scenario that is being presented by the European model.

Meanwhile, Katia, which is now a major Category 3 hurricane, is tracking to the northwest at a forward speed of 10 mph. The hurricane will track towards a weakness in the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic and is expected to turn north and then northeastward right around 70 or 71 West Longitude by late Wednesday or early Thursday. This track will keep Katia east of the US East Coast and the Canadian Maritimes.

Even though Katia will stay well away from the United States and the Canadian Maritimes, it will produce some large swells along the entire US East Coast, Bermuda and the eastern facing beaches of the Bahamas this week. These large swells will cause large surf and dangerous rip currents. People are advised to listen to their local weather advisories before going into the water.

Go to Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com and the National Hurricane Centre at www.nhn.noaa.gov/ for more information on these systems. We wish to thank Crown Weather for their permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them.

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