September 24, 2020

Disturbed weather over Cayman Islands unlikely to develop


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From Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather (

Satellite imagery early Tuesday (29) morning showed an area of concentrated disturbed weather right over the Cayman Islands. The conditions around this disturbed weather have not changed since yesterday with little or no surface vorticity and a minimal amount of vorticity in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, there is hardly no low-level convergence with most of the convection begin created by a large amount of divergence (basically large amounts of air expanding out upstairs in the atmosphere). Wind shear across the western Caribbean this morning is near 40 knots which is too hostile for any sort of development.

At this point, I would say the chances of tropical development in the western Caribbean the rest of this week is nearly zero. None of the regional or global model guidance forecasts development from this system and I agree with this assessment. Now, should this area of disturbed weather persist into this weekend and into next week, then it may need to be watched more closely. One thing to note is that a tropical wave was located to the east of the Windward Islands near 52 West Longitude this morning. This tropical wave will be watched in the event it adds energy and moisture to this area of the Caribbean towards the weekend.

So, at this point, no development in the western or northwestern Caribbean through at least Friday, however, this area may need to be watched more closely from Saturday and beyond.

Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina today (Wednesday 30).

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