October 21, 2021

AI knew all along that it was not Brexit that did it in the UK election

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In case you missed it, there was one Twitter feed that was bang on in predicting the UK election results (https://twitter.com/Polly_ASI).

Advanced Symbolics Inc. (ASI), an artificial intelligence-driven market research company, and its AI tool called “Polly” in fact, was more accurate than the premier polling source YouGov.

To find out why this result happened, what the people in Britain were saying leading up to the vote, etc., please see the below data and commentary from ASI’s CEO Erin Kelly and data from Polly.

The 2019 UK Election POV from ASI

“I think to understand why Boris ended up exceeding expectations you have to look at the time-line of when certain issues were top-of-mind for voters. In the chart below”

Here ASI’s Polly is showing the daily engagement on the 2 top issues of the election, the National Health Service (NHS) and Brexit:

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“At the start of the campaign, Brexit was clearly the biggest issue, which is an issue that favors the Conservatives, who have a clear message on getting Brexit finally done. Labour’s job during the election was to switch the major issue towards the NHS: voters trust the more left-wing party when it comes to protecting public services.”

“We can see that over the course of the campaign, Labour had some success (we see the biggest boost on Nov 27 when Jeremy Corbyn reveals dossier ‘proving NHS up for sale’. We see the NHS issue also manage to come up again on Dec 8-9 (this time there was a photo of a boy sleeping on a hospital floor, and Boris was criticized for his reaction to the photo). Polly’s last seat projection was around this time, showing still a clear majority for Boris, but not quite as high as the final result.”

“However, in the crucial period leading up to the vote, Brexit overtakes the NHS as the dominant issue, and thus is the top-of-mind issue when people went into the voting booth. This helps the Conservatives win a majority even greater than many of them had hoped (and slightly higher than our last projection, although still well within the seat range). As they say, in politics, timing is everything!”

In terms of looking at the election timeline, we also have some info looking back on the last blog ASI posted: https://advancedsymbolics.com/uk-elections-certain-majority-for-boris-johnsons-conservatives/.  Specifically, we pointed to the only 2 times we saw big dips in the Conservative seat count (due to a no-show debate and some Trump associations).

END

As you canl see Erin, Polly and ASI, have the expertise and background and can speak to the election results and they know what they are talking about, having a track record of accurately predicting elections and referendums, including the 2015 Canadian Federal Election, BREXIT 2016, U.S. 2016 Federal Election, the 2019 Canadian Federal Election and now the 2019 UK election. Check it out here: https://advancedsymbolics.com/news/#news_section

Advanced Symbolics Inc. (ASI), is an artificial intelligence-driven market research company, uses AI to accurately predict human behavior for use in market and behavioral research. ASI’s patented AI, named “Polly,” uses vast amounts of publicly available online information to create representative samples of any population or target audience. Without asking any direct questions, Polly can track and interprets how people in the sample set feel toward a topic, down to their intentions. Polly is typically tasked with scenario testing, message testing, topic discovery, ad tracking, sales forecasting, and brand health.

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