Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017

400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been

intensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been

increasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday.

Microwave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some

primitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the

increased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5

from TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.

There are no obvious environmental impediments to further

strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high

mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in

good agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a

hurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much

cooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the

cyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The

latest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement

with the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A

large mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should

continue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple

of days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once

the cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level

winds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track,

resulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the

coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore.

Only cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the

NHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

96H 29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

Forecaster Blake

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

 

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