2 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TS.
2 Sep Sun 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018
Florence continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave imagery from
a recent AMSR overpass indicates that a majority of the deep
convection is located in the northern semicircle of the tropical
storm, but its center is still well embedded within the central
dense overcast. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB supports increasing the intensity to 50 kt.
Some additional slight strengthening is still expected over the next
day or so while Florence remains in a light shear environment and
over marginal SSTs. Beginning in about 3 days, slow weakening is
forecast due to an expected increase in wind shear associated with
an extensive mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic.
The intensity guidance is in generally good agreement through 120 h,
and the official forecast remains near the intensity consensus.
The initial motion is now 290/13. The track guidance is fairly
tightly packed for the first 48 h or so, with the spread increasing
more quickly beyond that time. For the next couple of days, the
subtropical ridge should keep Florence moving westward to
west-northwestward at a similar forward speed. By day 3, a
west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast to begin, as the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough influences the track of
the tropical storm. While all of the global models show this
general scenario, the extent to which Florence will gain latitude is
less certain. A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the
northwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a
more westward to west-northwestward track. For now, the NHC
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to
all of the consensus models. This track is also generally in line
with the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker
system than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a
stronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 16.5N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.5N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.1N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 2 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norman, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently upgraded
Tropical Storm Olivia, located about 500 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula.
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle of next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
Forecaster Avila
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and some thunder are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as the upper levels continue to enhance showers associated with a tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Florence. This storm poses no threat to the Cayman Island. For further information on this storm please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Humidity: 85% (UP from yesterday)
UV: 11.6 EXTREME (DOWN from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 9o.2°F L 79.0°F
Wind direction TODAY: ESE 10-15 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: ESE 5-10 mph GC
Barometer: 1012.80 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 1.83 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 0.00 in 5 days since rain 0 rain days in September
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 24.00 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in September 8.2 in. Average temperature in September: 77°F to 90°F
Sea Temperature in September 84°F
57% Waning Gibbous
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN SEPTEMBER 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
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