Cayman Islands’ Premier, Alden McLaughlin, is 100% correct when he said in his Hurricane Season message published today, “I don’t care for hurricane predictions, especially when they tell us we don’t have much to worry about”.

He warns, “I fear that it leads to complacency and we know that can lead to widespread destruction and even death in the event of a hurricane, no matter how small or large.”

He mentions as a warning, “Many of you were here to experience the wrath of Hurricane Ivan. Personally, it was one of the most horrific events of my life and one I hope to never go through again. If you were here, I hope you remember the storm as it barreled down on us and the after effects.”

How I can concur with him on that.

I lived most of my early life in England living on the South Coast and gale force winds were a regular occurrence. I thought I was prepared to engage the force of a tropical hurricane.

I was never so wrong about anything in my life.

McLaughlin said, “That storm caught us off guard because we had become complacent.”

I well remember just before Ivan another and less formidable storm approached and we were told to batten down the hatches. Most of us did as we were predicted to get a direct hit. We braced ourselves for the 100mph winds and we got very little. The storm turned before it reached us and it had a small eye. It travelled between Grand Cayman and the Sister Islands. On the Radio Cayman Talk Today Show many people called in complaining they had wasted their valuable time in putting up shutters. Even the host rebuked them asking the question, “Shouldn’t we be thanking God for sparing us?”

One of my friends who worked for Public Works told me there were many senior officers there who were actually hoping we would get a direct hit! They wanted to feel the power of a big storm and it excited them. I bet they aren’t saying that now.

Predictions are a guestimate at best. You only have to go back to the UK elections just a few weeks ago to see how wrong the predictions were about that one. A General Election is so much easier to predict than a hurricane that is at the mercy of the unpredictable forces of nature.

As I write this in my comfortable and dry office it is pouring with rain outside that has not stopped since it began at 7am. I am writing this at 2:30pm. The local national weather service predicted showers – some moderate. It has been a long shower and some of the rain was on the extreme side of moderate!

Like all the private media we work with Hazard Management Cayman Islands. Pay attention. Don’t be complacent.

Don’t take predictions as fact. It only takes one hurricane. If it is only one hurricane predicted for the season and it hits us …………