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T.S. Katia Tracking West-Northwestward. Tropical Development In The Gulf of Mexico Looking Likely

As we forecast yesterday (30) T.D. 12 is now Tropical Storm Katia that is expected to develop into a hurricane at any moment and a major storm by the weekend. Although the forecast track takes it north of us it is still very early and already some models are showing a track more south of the official path. Please monitor this storm closely and listen to the local media and official weather updates from the C.I. Government Weather Services. THIS STORM POSES NO THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Rob Lightbown on his Crown Weather website on August 30, 2011, 6:12 am said

“As of this morning, I am still leaning towards a track that takes Katia very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and Monday followed by a track that takes Katia just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday and then northward near the US East Coast late next week and next weekend. The highest threat areas after moving away from the northeastern Caribbean for Katia are Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and possibly eastern New England.”

Mr. Lightbown also is taking note of the area of disturbed weather that was over us yesterday and is forecasting it to develop further into the Gulf of Mexico later this week into the weekend.

“I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean that is forecast to track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and potentially develop into a tropical storm this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico. All of the global model guidance are now on board with this type of scenario with the GFS model forecasting a track that slowly moves along the central and western coast of Louisiana late this weekend and then along the Texas coast as we get into Monday and Tuesday. The European model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will track onshore into south Texas next Tuesday as a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane. The NAM model, for what its worth, forecasts that this disturbance will track into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday and develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Thursday. The NAM model also forecasts that this system may develop quickly as it nears the Texas coast by this weekend.”

For further information go to Crown Weather Services at and to the National Hurricane Center at We wish to thank Crown Weather for permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them.

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