DISTURBANCE ORGANIZES IN THE CARIBBEAN

By Daniel Phillips From KATC.COM

There is no denying it has been an unusually quiet hurricane season so far. Only six named Atlantic storms and none of them have even become hurricanes. Still though there is a disturbance that will be worth keeping an eye on out in the Caribbean.

A storm has started to become a little more organized, and although it still has a long way to go the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 50/50 shot of becoming a tropical system in the next five days.

One or two models have picked up on the disturbance and strengthen it, but for the next few days it will be more wait and see as the models respond to the storm and play catch up. The system is currently surround by dry air which will make rapid development difficult.

Upper level winds are favorable for a system to develop, but the atmosphere may just be to dry. Either way we are officially at the peak of hurricane season, so an increase in activity is certainly possible.

In the mean time the weather across Acadiana will remain incredibly quiet, as the ridge finally starts to break down. A weak frontal boundary could bring in some scattered rainfall for the middle of the work week, but will have a hard time moving out the dry air that’s in place.

For more on this story go to:

http://www.katc.com/news/disturbance-organizes-in-the-caribbean/

Related story from Dr. Jeff
Masters Weather Underground

A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west to west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Monday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased in organization since Sunday, and is spread out over a larger area, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 – 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the atmosphere has moistened since Sunday. The 12Z Monday balloon sounding from Barbados in the southern Lesser Antilles showed less than 10 knots of wind shear and a moist atmosphere. Wind shear was in the moderate range and the atmosphere was drier in the northern Lesser Antilles at Guadeloupe.

Forecast for 97L

Wind shear is expected to be low for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 – 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. A key factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days is the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts.

The models have shifted markedly in their projected path for 97L, and now take the system more to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. A track over the high mountains of that island would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on on Thursday, after it has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning’s 06Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble–which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks–foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. However, a number of storm tracks from the 00Z Monday GFS and ECMWF ensembles foresee a more westerly track for 97L over Eastern Cuba, which would further disrupt the storm. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Monday and Tuesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Southeast Bahamas on Thursday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and dropped the 2-day odds to 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L on Tuesday.

For more on this story go to:

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2508

Related story:

Is Atlantic Hurricane Void Going to Last?

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist From AccuWeather

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season will go down in the books as being free of hurricanes through August. However, data suggests that interests in the basin may not be so fortunate through November.

According to Meteorologist Adrienne Green, “Since 1960, there have been five years when there were no hurricanes through August.”

The years were 1967, 1984, 1988, 2001 and 2002. At the close of Saturday, 2013 will officially join this list.

“During each of those [five years before 2013], multiple hurricanes followed spanning September through October,” Green said.

The average number of hurricanes during the five years (5.8) is close to the average number of hurricane during all years (5.9).

An average of about nine named systems with about six hurricanes occurred following August during those five years. Since the start of September, the 2001 season brought nine hurricanes, while 2002 brought four hurricanes.

While there is no 100-percent guarantee any hurricanes will form for the balance of the season, the odds are greatly in favor of multiple hurricanes through November with some of these likely during September.

Based on past data, there will be multiple major hurricanes and direct impact on land by named systems are likely moving forward this season.

Each of these five years without August hurricanes delivered deadly and damaging hurricanes later in the season ranging from the Caribbean islands to Central America, Mexico, the United States and Canada.

These include:

1967 – September Hurricane Beulah – Category 5 – 688 fatalities – $1 billion in damage

1984 – September Hurricane Diana – Category 4 – 3 fatalities – $65.5 million in damage

1988 – September Hurricane Gilbert – Category 4 – 550 fatalities – $7 billion in damage

2001 – October Hurricane Iris – Category 4 – 36 fatalities – $250 million in damage

2001 – November Hurricane Michelle – Category 4 – 22 fatalities – $2 billion in damage

2002 – September Hurricane Isidore – Category 3 – 19 fatalities – $1.3 billion in damage

2002 – September Hurricane Lili – Category 4 – 13 fatalities – $925 million in damage

The 1984 and 2001 seasons brought named systems lingering into December. The 2002 season ended early, during mid-October.

A lack of strong systems in the tropics to date this season means there is a great deal of potential heat energy that is locked up over the basin. This energy is likely to be released and transported northward in the form of hurricanes during the months ahead.

There does not have to be a major hurricane making direct landfall to bring great risk to lives and property. Dangerous and damaging effects from a storm passing near an area or diminishing while moving inland can bring tremendous flooding, for example.

Despite the lack of hurricanes through August this season, people should not let their guard down.

For more on this story go to:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/is-atlantic-hurricane-void-going-to-last/17238334

 

CARIBBEAN REGION NEEDS A TSUNAMI WARNING CENTRE

Lisbeth Fog From SciDev Net

Despite its vulnerability, the region relies on the US for tsunami alerts

A warning centre in the region would be best positioned to issue alerts

Funding is needed to educate people about what to do if a tsunami hits

[CARTAGENA] Caribbean countries urgently need a regional tsunami warning centre to protect their densely populated coastlines, according to an article in Science today.

There has been significant effort over the past six years to improve tsunami preparedness, but more funds and research are needed to cut the detection time and ensure people know what to do if a tsunami strikes in this vulnerable region, it says.

“On any day, more than 500,000 people could be in harm’s way along the beaches, with hundreds of thousands more working and living in the tsunami hazard zones,” the paper says.

Over the past 500 years, 75 tsunamis have been registered in the region, but since the last large one in 1946, “there has been an explosive increase in residents, visitors, infrastructure, and economic activity along Caribbean coastlines, increasing the potential for human and economic loss”, according to the paper.

Despite advances since 2006, when intergovernmental organisation the Caribe EWS (Early Warning System) was set up, the region still relies on the interim solution of getting warnings from tsunami warning centres run by the US National Weather Service (NWS) in Alaska and Hawaii.

In 2010, the NWS, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), established the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico, as part of a three-phased project to create a tsunami warning centre in the region. There have been “significant advances” in the first two phases, which focused on tsunami education and earthquake monitoring, the paper says.

NOAA is now evaluating whether to proceed with phase three and to establish a regional tsunami warning centre at the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez, or whether to consider an alternative solution.

“On any day, more than 500,000 people could be in harm’s way.”

Science

“A tsunami warning centre in the region would be best positioned to address all the technical and scientific issues associated with the issuance of tsunami alerts, and would also be most sensitive to the social and cultural diversity which is also key for an effective warning system,” Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade, manager of the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program and author of the article, tells SciDev.Net.

“One of our greatest challenges and needs is increasing the preparedness of the tourism sector, with 40 million visitors a year, mostly concentrated along the shores,” she says. “It is critical that the hotel and tourism sector be ready to respond to a tsunami event and emergency. The greater the concentration of lives and livelihoods a county has along its coastlines, the more vulnerable it is going to be to tsunamis, and it needs to plan and act accordingly.”

The paper calls for more funding for educational resources because most coastal communities lack evacuation maps and notices, and all require ongoing education for residents and visitors on how to recognise and respond to tsunami warning signs.

Another concern is that the current tsunami warning system is primarily triggered by earthquakes detected by seismic stations, so a tsunami alert is unlikely to be issued in the event of a volcanic eruption or landslide not associated with an earthquake.

The paper concludes that, by funding these efforts further, “we will not only save lives and protect livelihoods from tsunamis, but will be better prepared for earthquakes and other coastal hazards”.

Glen S. Mattioli, a professor at the University of Texas at Arlington, United States, tells SciDev.Net that the paper paints an accurate picture of the urgent need to tackle tsunami hazard in the region, where potential tsunami-generating events such as large offshore earthquakes and submarine volcanic eruptions could occur close to populated areas.

“Development of enhanced regional tsunami warning systems, improved education of at-risk communities and better coordination among regional stakeholders are all welcome and certainly somewhat overdue for the Caribbean region,” he says.

For more on this story go to:

http://m.scidev.net/global/disasters/news/caribbean-region-needs-a-tsunami-warning-centre.html

 

EXTINCTION LIKELY FOR CALIFORNIA CONDORS IF NRA WON’T TRADE IN LEAD BULLETS

By Alicia Graef From Care2

The National Rifle Association (NRA) is in the spotlight again, this time for its latest efforts to fight against a ban on lead ammunition in California. According to conservation groups, this ban will protect California condors and other wild animals from lead poisoning.

When hunters use lead ammunition and leave carcasses or gut piles that contain lead shot pellets or bullet fragments, scavengers who eat what’s left can end up with lead poisoning, causing sickness and death.

Assembly Bill 711 would ban lead ammunition in the state, in addition to providing non-lead bullets to hunters free or at a low cost. If it passes, California will be the first state to require a switch to non-lead alternatives, such as copper or bismuth.

While some hunters are supportive of the ban and are switching voluntarily, the NRA is fighting it and has launched huntfortruth.org, a website intended to debunk scientific studies concerning the adverse effects of lead ammunition on people and wildlife and has named a number of conservation organizations and zoos on its list of enemies.

The organization’s bigger fear seems to be that this is just another step in the fight to ban hunting altogether, even though supporters of the ban continuously point out that isn’t the case and that this is an issue about protecting wildlife. The NRA used the same anti-hunting argument when it fought the issue back in 1991 when the Environmental Protection Agency banned lead ammunition for hunting waterfowl, but the organization’s paranoia was as unfounded then as it is now.

For California condors, even with the success of the captive breeding program, their survival is still questionable. They’re still being poisoned and as it stands now, they wouldn’t survive without human intervention. They’re currently being released, recaptured, treated for lead poisoning and then re-released in a cycle that could easily be halted.

As a result of the continued poisoning of California condors, the state banned lead ammunition for hunting in 2008 in their historic range which runs roughly from Los Angeles to San Jose. However, conservationists believe that a wider ban is needed to prevent condors and other birds, such as bald eagles and vultures, from dying as a result of lead poisoning because they venture beyond protected areas.

As the Washington Times points out in a breakdown of the site, the NRA continues to argue that lead isn’t dangerous without proving any valid information to back up its claim and “does not present a single piece of scientific, peer-reviewed evidence that specifically shows that lead fragments from bullets are not toxic to wildlife.”

On the other side, there’s a lot evidence to support the fact that condors and at least 130 other species continue to be poisoned by lead ammunition. A 2012 study conducted by the National Academy of Sciences concluded that continuing without a ban will inevitably lead to condors’ extinction.

The U.S. military is also making a switch to non-lead ammunition, which some now argue should also be good enough for hunters and that the military’s switch could help increase production and availability of alternatives, which would also reduce costs.

Fortunately, the bill passed the Assembly and is now in the Senate for consideration.

For more on this story go to:

http://www.care2.com/causes/extinction-likely-for-california-condors-if-nra-wont-trade-in-lead-bullets.html

 

2013 CARIBBEAN MARTIN SURVEY

By Anthony Levesque, Jeff Gerbracht, and Doug Weidemann From eBird Caribbean

This September, help Anthony Levesque and eBird Caribbean survey an important migratory Caribbean bird, the Caribbean Martin (Progne dominicensis).

Anthony has been conducting long term research at a Caribbean Martin roost on Guadeloupe for seven years.

Recently, he initiated a yearly, region-wide Caribbean Martin survey during fall migration. At night, martins gather in large flocks to roost (often on power lines or buildings), making them easy to count.

To participate in the survey, count martins at your local martin roost after the birds have arrived for the night. To coordinate your counts with other observers, please count birds on two days, September 5 and 15. However, any counts you can make of roosting Martins during September, and in fact during the whole year, will be very helpful and appreciated.

To submit your roost survey data, enter your counts into eBird Caribbean using the “Caribbean Martin Survey” protocol option.

Detailed survey instructions and more information about Caribbean Martins can be found in a previous eBird Caribbean article or see below.

Of course, you do not have to limit eBird Caribbean submissions to only roosting Caribbean Martins. Any sightings of Caribbean Martins are welcome, especially during migration. However, please select the martin survey protocol option only if you have followed the survey instructions. Other sightings can be submitted as normal checklists. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to contact the persons listed on the instructions page.

Thank you and good luck!

PHOTO: Caribbean Martin in flight. Photograph by Anthony Levesque

Caribbean Martin male and female in Puerto Rico, photo by Rafy Rodriguez

For more on this story go to:

hebird.org/content/caribbean/news/2013-caribbean-martin-survey/

How to count Caribbean Martins

Join our Caribbean Martin Survey!

HOW TO COUNT THEM? Do the count around sunset, when the birds fly in to the roost site to sleep for the night. Your count method will depend on the structure of the roost site and whether or not all the birds are visible from your observation point.

If all the birds are visible at the roosting site and easy to count, then count them after they have all arrived to roost for the night (~one hour after sunset, or anytime during the night). It may be getting dark at this point, but if the roost site is in the city, you will probably have lights to help you see. You can count the birds 1 by 1 or 2 by 2. It takes Anthony about half an hour to count >2,000 sleeping birds. Be sure to record your start count time and duration of the count.

If it is not possible to see all the birds at the roost site (e.g., if they are on a roof), then count them as they are flying in to the site. Arrive at the site ~one half hour before sunset and count the birds as they fly in. If large numbers of birds are flying in rapidly, you will need to estimate how many are in flight by counting them 5 by 5 or 10 by 10. Do your best to estimate numbers and don’t worry if you are not absolutely sure of the exact count. Your results—whether you count 50 – 500 birds or 5,000 birds—will be very important in helping to estimate the population size and trends of Caribbean Martins in the region. Again, be sure to record your effort—that is, the amount of time that you spent counting the birds (start time and duration).  If you are able, we encourage you to record all other birds observed at the site too.

If you are not that familiar with the roost site, you may want to visit it once or twice close to the survey date, to get a better idea of how you will do the count (what time to arrive, how visible the birds are, the best vantage point, etc.)  This is also a good opportunity to conduct some preparatory counts (which can be entered into eBird Caribbean as a “Stationary Count”).

After completing your survey, enter your data in eBird Caribbean (eBird Caribbean). There is a protocol for “Caribbean Martin Survey.” It is very easy to enter the data (we can provide help to get you started if needed). Another option is to send the data to Anthony Levesque and he will enter it for you. Use the excel file “Caribbean-Martin-upload-spreadsheet” and fill this in with your site and count information and a protocol of P50. Note: if you conducted the count at a roost site where you previously saw birds but no birds were observed on the day of the survey, be sure to enter this “negative” data also (this is just as important as positive counts).

Once all the data are entered, we can then view maps and charts of everyone’s data from around the region and gain a better understanding of the distribution and abundance of migratory Caribbean Martins in the region and over time.

If you have any questions about the protocol or how to enter your data, please don’t hesitate to contact the following persons:

Anthony Levesque – [email protected]

Jeff Gerbracht – [email protected]

Lisa Sorenson – [email protected]

CaribMartinRoost