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By Rob Duns, Meteorologist From ABC 7

The second tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed.

As of the 5:00 p.m. Monday, July 21st update, the depression was located over the open Atlantic Ocean about 1,200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles island chain in the Caribbean Sea. Compared to Fort Myers, Florida, the depression is about 2,600 miles away.

Maximum sustained winds as of late Monday afternoon are at 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. The feature is moving to the west at 16 mph. A tropical depression is a low pressure center with max sustained winds less than 39 mph.

This disturbance follows Hurricane Arthur, the first named storm of the 2014 tropical weather season.

At its peak, Arthur was a category two storm that impacted areas of coastal North Carolina the worst before weakening on its northern movement toward Atlantic Canada.

Data collected by satellite shows activity over the Atlantic Ocean connected with this depression showing better defined circulation through Monday.

Over the next three days the system is expected to continue moving west toward the Caribbean Sea.

Environmental conditions will become less favorable for continued development as drier air and stronger wind sheer will interact with the storm.

For more: http://www.abc-7.com/story/26071958/hurricane-center-watching-new-system-in-atlantic

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and are initiating advisories at this time.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass. The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72 hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given much weight in the official forecast.

The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W   30 KT 35 MPH

12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W   30 KT 35 MPH

24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W   30 KT 35 MPH

36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W   30 KT 35 MPH

48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W   30 KT 35 MPH

72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W   30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brennan