Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles northwest of the
Azores.

1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated. This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph
and is forecast to move through the Windward Islands on Saturday,
where it could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto is maintaining its strength and status as a tropical storm
despite being over very cool 21 deg C waters. Deep convection
remains well organized in a curved band that wraps across the
eastern half of the circulation. The system is likely benefiting
from a moist and unstable airmass, which seems to be the reason why
Ernesto has held onto tropical storm status longer than expected.
The initial wind speed is again held at 40 kt, using a blend of the
latest satellite intensity estimates.

The convective organization is not expected to last much longer as
Ernesto is tracking over steadily colder waters and will also be
moving into an environment of higher shear. These hostile
environmental conditions should cause the system to lose its
tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours, when the
cyclone is forecast to be over SSTs of around 15 deg C. The
post-tropical low is expected to gradually decay before it merges
with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom in about 48 hours.

Ernesto is now well embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and the
latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 22 kt. An even
faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected until
the system merges with the frontal zone. The models remain tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 45.6N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 50.4N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/1800Z 52.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lane, located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
North Pacific basin.

1. A tropical wave, located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS