September 25, 2017

14 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 2 Dist

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Sep 14 Thu 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system through early next week while it moves
westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located just offshore of the west coast of
Africa, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

 

HURRICANE JOSE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in
conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since
been restored. A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level
center was displaced to the south of the low-level center.
Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that
basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt.

I expect little change in strength through the forecast period.
Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the
next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical
Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more
baroclinicly-driven cyclone. In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some
extratropical characteristics by day 5. The dynamical models all
indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so
the new NHC forecast reflects that.

The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt.
Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed,
there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the
last forecast. A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little
stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn
toward the northwest, and eventually the north. Since the
guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west
of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run
consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 25.1N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 68.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Max, located near the southwest coast of Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually
becoming organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly
northwestward. For more information on this system, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands is producing persistent but disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Satellite imagery indicates that a
well-defined center does not currently exist and additional
development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while this
system moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

Public Advisories on Max are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Max are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

Forecaster Avila

 

MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY… …LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO

 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

We have good data this morning. Very useful radar images from
Mexico show that Max’s structure has improved during the past few
hours. An excellent ASCAT pass over the system was helpful in
determining the intensity and the tropical-storm-force wind radii.
Furthermore, the ship A8MW6 reported 45 kt winds and 11 foot waves
near the coast of Mexico. Based on these data, the initial intensity
was adjusted to 55 kt. At this point, it would only take a small
increase in intensity for Max to reach the coast as a hurricane.
Once the center moves inland the cyclone is forecast to weaken
quickly and dissipate within 36 hours.

Max is moving toward the east-northeast or 070 degrees at 5 kt. The
storm is embedded within a west-southwest flow and this flow
pattern will steer Max toward Mexico until dissipation. Based on
the forecast track, the core should be inland within the warning
area within the next 12 hours.

Max will produce life-threatening flooding rainfall in portions of
the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.6N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.9N 99.7W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 17.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 15/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and
middle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be
clearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data.
Given the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and
the depression could become better organized and reach tropical
storm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance.

My best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped
within weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is
forecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering
currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably
begin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up
to 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the
forecast is highly uncertain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

 

Not available. See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 88%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 12.1  EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 92.5°F  L 78.5°F

Wind direction TODAY:  ENE  5-10 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: NE 5-10 mph GC

Barometer: 1014:00 mb  Rising slowly  Rain:   Last month: 4.29 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  1.91 in

  16 Rain days in Aug  6 Rain days in Sep   3 days since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 25.35 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Sep 8.2 in.  Average temperature in Sep: 77°F to 90°F

in Sep 84°F

Moon: 36% Waning Crescent

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN SEP 2017 – Click to enlarge

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  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News Sep 14 Thu 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the southeastern… Link: 14 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 2 Dist […]

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