11 Jul Wed 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Chris, located more than 300 miles east of the North Carolina Outer
Banks.

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated
with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and
extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions
could become a little more favorable later in the week while the
disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The
previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

CHRIS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

Chris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding
convection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers
are either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90
kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a
little during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the
Gulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move
over increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire
extratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland.

Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward
speed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19
kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of
a large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer
the hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional
increase in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement
and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This
increases considerably the confidence in the track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 35.3N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 37.2N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 40.9N 62.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 45.0N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z 63.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Despite marginally
conducive environmental conditions, the broad nature of the
disturbance is expected to inhibit any significant development while
it moves westward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Forecaster Zelinsky

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

A tropical wave currently making its way across the Cayman area will support showers and thunder through late night tonight. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area which are moving westward. At 4 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Hurricane Chris. THIS STORM POSES NO THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. For further information on this system, please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov.

 

Humidity: 81%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 12.4   EXTREME  (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – Not available.  See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 90.4°F  L 81.5°F

Wind direction TODAY: E 10-15 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: E 5-10 mph GC

Barometer: 1014.10 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 11.49 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  0.19 in  2 days since rain 3 rain days in July

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 Season Total: 17.65 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in July 6.9 in.  Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in July 84°F

 

Moon illumination: 4% Waning Gibbous