AccuWeather Public Relations

> Rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches can occur in Haiti, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and southwestern portions of the Dominican Republic, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches 
 
> AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warns that if the storm slows or stalls near the islands, there may be a flooding disaster that could escalate to a humanitarian crisis 

> Due to life-threatening flooding, mudslides, damaging winds and power outages, Tropical Storm Melissa is a two on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for the Caribbean 

AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Oct. 21, 2025 – AccuWeather® hurricane experts say Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen in the Caribbean and bring heavy rainfall, potentially life-threatening and catastrophic flooding, and damaging winds to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, and the southern Bahamas starting later this week. Rain and wind is also expected to impact parts of Puerto Rico. 

“A tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on or near these islands will produce life-threatening impacts, including flooding rainfall, damaging winds and storm surge. If confidence in the risk for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster increases, evacuations of people may become necessary, especially in the greatest risk areas — for people near creeks, streams, rivers and other bodies of water, as well as near steep terrain where damaging mudslides are more likely,” AccuWeather® Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Should the storm slow down considerably and dwell over parts of the Caribbean islands for a day or more, a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster would become inevitable. This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where there is a large number of people in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing, and medical care.” 

• AccuWeather® was the first known source to issue a track and intensity forecast for this storm on Monday night.  
• Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to move westward while gradually gaining wind intensity and is expected to become a hurricane later this week. It is possible that Melissa could undergo rapid intensification as it sits over the warm waters of the Caribbean. As the storm moves northward, significant flooding and strong winds will be possible in Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola.  
• The storm could also drift farther west before making a northward turn. Interests in the Caribbean and Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this storm, as a shift in track can bring impacts farther west. 

There is also another scenario where the storm tracks farther west and does not turn toward Hispaniola. In this case, the major flood risk across the island would be much lower. This westward track scenario would greatly increase the risk for strong winds and flooding across Jamaica and potentially Cuba or even parts of Central America,” Porter said. 

• Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will occur from Jamaica to the Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches can occur in Haiti, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and western and southern portions of the Dominican Republic, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches. 
• This heavy rain can lead to widespread, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially across the varied terrain of the islands. The steep and rugged mountains of Hispaniola can act like natural channels, rapidly directing rainfall downhill into narrow valleys and river basins. 
• Rainfall amounts will be highly dependent on the track of the storm, as a westward shift in the track can lead to higher rainfall amounts.  
• As Melissa moves north, strong winds are expected to spread across the northern Caribbean Thursday into early next week.  
• Wind gusts of 60-80 mph are possible from western Haiti to eastern Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph. 
• The strong winds can bring down trees and power lines and can cause some structural damage. Power outages could last for days or even weeks where the strongest winds occur. 
• Due to life-threatening flooding, mudslides, damaging winds and power outages,  Melissa is a two on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for the Caribbean. 
   

“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster across parts of the Caribbean, especially near steep terrain across parts of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, should the storm move north and slow down considerably,” Porter said. “If Melissa were to stall near the coast of one or more of the Greater Antilles, there could be a historic flooding disaster in that region due to repeated rounds of torrential tropical downpours. These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as seen in major flooding disasters in this area, including Hurricane Flora in 1963, which tragically claimed over 7,000 lives. More recently, in May 2004, devastating floods occurred across Hispaniola when nearly 20 inches of rain fell. While not from a tropical storm or hurricane, this is yet another example of the flood risk in the Caribbean.” 

“Without trees across Haiti to help absorb some of the rain, days of tropical rainfall would bring an extreme risk for mudslides and life-threatening flooding,” AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it’s still on the table should Melissa make it into the western Caribbean.” 

• AccuWeather® hurricane experts say the chance of a direct United States hit from this storm are low right now, but it’s still on the table should Melissa make it into the western Atlantic. 
• Historically, tropical systems that reach the western Caribbean in October are more likely to be steered away from places like Texas and Louisiana. But the eastern United States and Florida in particular can still be impacted by intense storms. 
• If the storm drifts west in the Caribbean through the weekend and then turns north over Cuba next week, there is the possibility that it could bring at least rough surf to the East Coast of the U.S. If it were to track close to the coast, it could bring rain and gusty winds as well. 

AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes

In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact^TM Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic loss than wind. 

END. See also: “Residents in the Cayman Islands need to keep a very close eye on Melissa“