By Peter Polack

Peter Polack

The Russian offensive in the Ukraine or a Special Military Disaster has descended from slight battlefield gains into mass deployment of drones and a few missiles into urban population centers. A genocide attempt reminiscent of the Holodomor except a complete failure by Putin and his cronies to sway the Ukrainians who are more resistant with every single explosion and death.

The Russian strategy has been daily strikes that cost the Kremlin millions of dollars but resulted in only a few civilian deaths and damage to mostly residential buildings. Terrible as it is, the Russians will run out of armaments before the Ukraine run out of bodies. Fact.

The Ukrainians, unlike the Russians, have long dispersed their military manufacturing to limit strikes unlike their opponents who maintain large factories or super targets. Those crucial suppliers of the Russian military have not escaped the long arm of Ukraine ingenuity who appear to be able to reach out and touch anyone.

In the unlikely event that Putin forces are able to advance, that will only cause the largest guerrilla army in Europe to disperse in what will be terminally hostile territory and reduce the invaders to extensive and irregular warfare with the best situation, rear boundaries on several supporting European countries. Think the Colombian FARC and others using the Venezuela border without surrender for decades.

The American turnaround after the failed bromance between Trump and Putin will help but only a little. Threats to bomb Moscow frighten no one.

The citizens of Ukraine and Europe must now embrace the truth of wholesale war, civilian targets and the uselessness of diplomatic efforts in their respective futures. Historical negotiations and treaties have no place in the new world where stamina and ruthlessness are the real weapons. There are no cavalry or white knights. Ukraine is not a part of NATO yet and no support is forthcoming in the form of actual boots to the ground.

Like drowning men, Ukraine and Russia are grappling with each other as they descend into the depths never to return.

Ukraine may be involved in an existential struggle but so is Russia.

Putin the elder has no succession plan and he may see the break up of Russia in an effort to reconstitute the old Soviet Union because of his failure.

So what now?

Military supplies without soldiers is Peter putting his finger in the dike. Failing acceptance of the now which will be the future there can only be a call to arms. Volunteers first and age appropriate conscription. A bitter and delayed pill when it is no longer conscionable to allow the Ukraine to exhaust itself to ultimately protect Europe.

Peter Polack

Peter Polack is the author of The Last Hot Battle of the Cold War: South Africa vs. Cuba in the Angolan Civil War (2013), Jamaica, The Land of Film (2017) and Guerrilla Warfare: Kings of Revolution (2018). He was a contributor to Encyclopedia of Warfare (2013).He has completed his latest book entitled Soviet Spies Worldwide: Country by Country, 1940–1988