Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...
Caribbean Sea and the 
Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is 
not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Three-E 
Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane 
Center Miami FL       
EP032017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Satellite imagery indicates that 
the depression is poorly organized at 
this time, with episodic bursts of 
convection occurring near the
center and in the northwestern semicircle.  
This is likely due to the influence of moderate 
easterly vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity 
estimates are unchanged from earlier, and there 
have been no observation from near the center 
since the last advisory.  Based on the above, 
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The motion has been somewhat erratic, and the 
best estimate of a longer-term motion is 325/3.  
The depression is in a area of light
steering currents south of a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge
caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the 
western Gulf of Mexico. The guidance agrees that the 
cyclone should move slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 
36-48 h, with the center likely to move inland over 
southeastern Mexico in 24 h or
less and then remaining inland.  The new forecast track 
is similar
to, but just south of, the previous forecast and it lies 
near the center of the guidance envelope.  It should be 
noted that due to the overall slow forward speed the center 
could continue to move erratically between now and landfall.



The cyclone is expected to remain over warm water in an 
environment of moderate shear until landfall, and thus 
gradual intensification to tropical-storm strength is expected.  
This portion of the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of 
the guidance, and an alternative forecast scenario is that 
the cyclone never becomes a tropical storm.  The intensity 
forecast has been changed after landfall to show a faster 
dissipation over the mountains of Mexico
in agreement with the various dynamical models.

The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.  The eastern portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning could be discontinued later today if the cyclone 
continues moving away from the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 15.3N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 15.7N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 16.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/1800Z 16.4N  96.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Slight to moderate southeasterly winds and seas are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a weakening ridge of high pressure over the Caribbean. Radar images show isolated showers in the Cayman area moving towards the west.