From msn

The area centered around the western Caribbean Sea will be one of a few places to watch for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin this June.

This area represents some of the warmest waters of the basin and is generally free from disruptive high-level winds. Usually this area is also removed from dry air over the central Atlantic.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching the vicinity of the western Caribbean and the eastern Gulf of Mexico closely over the next couple of weeks as conditions change in the environment around the region.

June 1, 2014, marks the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season.

While this area is quiet and generally free of rain now, there is some indication that conditions over the waters of the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico around Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula will become more unsettled with the potential for locally heavy rain during the first week of June.

According to AccuWeather Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok, “We are likely to see a zone of high pressure develop at mid-levels of the atmosphere over western Texas and correspondingly an area of low pressure may try to form well away, farther to the southeast.”

Low pressure areas aloft in the tropics often initiate showers and thunderstorms and can eventually instigate development.

This broad area of low pressure will then be monitored to see how quickly showers and thunderstorms are produced and whether or not the rainfall takes the next stage toward organization.

“If upper-level winds remain weak in the area of showers and thunderstorms that form, there could be some room for modest development,” Pastelok said.

Late next week, anticipated steering-level winds over the eastern third of the United States may allow any disturbance and locally heavy rain to be drawn northeastward out of the Caribbean, then perhaps to along the central to eastern Gulf Coast and possibly along the Atlantic Seaboard.

It is too early to say for sure whether or not a system will develop over or near the western Caribbean next week, but this is an area to keep a keen eye on from a climatology standpoint.

In a statement from AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski earlier this spring, “The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season could be ushered in by a system or two during June to July.”

While El Niño is in the developing stages, its full effect on the Atlantic Basin may not be felt until late summer or fall.

The warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean produced during an El Niño tends to cause an increase in disruptive winds for tropical development over part of the Atlantic Basin.

During early June of 2013, Andrea developed near the Yucatan Peninsula and tracked across northern Florida and up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

In 2012, two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developed in May. While Hurricane Chris developed in mid-June and avoided land, Tropical Storm Debby formed just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and crossed central Florida during late June.

For more on this story go to:

http://local.msn.com/WeatherArticle.aspx?cp-documentid=263695498

 

Related story:

Central America and Caribbean Seasonal Monitor – May 2014

From reliefweb

Key Messages

– According to recent forecasts, there is an increased likelihood of an El Niño event during the July-December 2014 period (Figure 1). During the transition to El Niño conditions (approximately May-August), spatial distribution of rainfall will likely be irregular, and rainfall totals will be below average during the months of June-August, especially in the Pacific areas of Central America and throughout Haiti.

– In Haiti, crop development is currently average, despite a 5-10 day delay in the start of season in some areas of Artibonite, Nord, Nord Est, Grand Anse, and Sud.

– In the northern region of Guatemala, an early start to the Primera season rains by almost 20 days has favored early planting, especially in the departments of Petén, Alta Verapaz, and Quiché (Figure 2).

ENSO conditions

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific. As of early May, ENSO model predictions indicate a 60 to 78 percent change of an El Niño event during the June 2014 thru February 2015 period. Most models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) conditions will transition to El Niño conditions during May-August 2014.

During the transition to El Niño conditions, spatial distribution of rainfall will likely be irregular, and rainfall totals will be below average during the months of June-August, especially in the Pacific areas of Central America and throughout Haiti. Poor spatial distribution of rains, and below-average totals, could impact Primera crop development in the dry areas of Guatemala (Jalapa, Zacapa, Chiquimula, El Progreso, Baja Verapaz, and Jutiapa departments); Honduras (Olancho, Francisco Morazán, Choluteca, La Paz, and El Paraiso departments); and El Salvador (Chalatenango, La Unión, San Miguel, Morazán, and Cabañas departments). In Haiti, the spring harvest (particularly in Nord Ouest, Artibonite, Nipes, and Ouest departments), and sowing for the fall harvest (August to mid-October) could be also affected by rainfall deficits.

Primera season

The Primera season (mid-April to mid-July) started on time throughout the Central America region, except in the areas of Petén, Alta Verapaz, and Huehuetenango in Guatemala, where rains started early. These departments currently have good moisture conditions due to regular rainfall from the end of 2013 to the present, which could benefit the atypically early start of the sowing season in northern Guatemala. The Ministry of Agriculture began to deliver fertilizers to subsistence farmers across the country. Normal crop development is reported in the departments of Huehuetenango, Chimaltenango, Sololá, and San Marcos.

FIGURE 3. WATER REQUIREMENT SATISFACTION INDEX (WRSI), MAY 1-5, 2014.

Source: USGS/FEWSNET

In Haiti, despite a 5 – 10 day delay in the start of the season in some areas of Artibonite, Nord, Nord Est, Grand Anse, and Sud departments, crop development has been normal for the Primera Season (Figure 3). Due the transition to El Nino, the forecast calls for a significant reduction in rainfall between the end of June and the middle of July in Mole St- Nicolas, Bombardies, Jean-Rabel, Baie de Henne communities in the Nord-Ouest; and Tomazeau, Croix des Bouquets, Ganthier, Carretour and Petion – Ville in Ouest department.

For more on this story go to: http://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/central-america-and-caribbean-seasonal-monitor-may-2014

To download the whole report go to: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Central%20America%20and%20Caribbean%20-%20Seasonal%20Monitor_%20Tue%2C%202014-05-27.pdf