February 1, 2023

Tropical Storm Risk’s take on 2014 hurricane season

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images-Caribbean-hurricane_sandy_251012b_110867118From Caribbean360:

TSR lowers its December forecast to predict 12 tropical storms including five hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

LONDON, England, Friday April 11, 2014 – The June 1 start of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season may seem a long way off, but respected forecasters Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) are focussed on the likely weather conditions and have already revised their long-range forecast issued in December.

The good news is that Dr Adam Lea and his team at the Department of Space and Climate Physics at University College London are predicting a relatively mild hurricane season this year.

The not-so-good-news is that TSR’s April forecast for 2013, along with those of virtually every other recognised forecaster, predicted above-average activity for a season that mercifully fizzled out like a damp squib.

As Dr Lea pointed out, it should be stressed that forecast uncertainties at this (April) lead are large. The precision of TSR’s extended range outlooks between 1980 and 2013 is low.

At this stage, TSR, which provides real-time mapping and prediction of tropical cyclone windfields worldwide, has lowered its forecast for North Atlantic and US hurricane activity in 2014.

The revised forecast predicts North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2014 to be 25 percent below the long-term (1950-2013) norm and 40 percent below the recent 2004-2013 10-year norm. US landfalling hurricane activity is forecast to be about 30 percent below the 2004-2013 10-year norm.

TSR now forecasts:

An ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 75. The long-term and recent 2004-2013 norm values are 102 and 129 respectively.

12 tropical storms including five hurricanes and two intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of 11, six and three respectively, and to 2004-2013 norms of 16, eight and four respectively.

A 47 percent likelihood that activity will be in the bottom one-third of years historically, a 32 percent likelihood it will be in the middle one-third of years historically and a 21 percent chance it will be in the top one-third of years historically.

Three tropical storms and one hurricane landfall on the US mainland.

The main reasons for the reduction in the TSR forecast since early December are (1) the expectation that August/September 2014 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic will be cooler than thought previously, and (2) the increased expectation that a moderate El Nino event will develop August/September 2014. Both these factors will act as moderate suppressing effects on North Atlantic hurricane activity.

For more on this story go to: http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/1107469.html?utm_source=Caribbean360+Newsletters&utm_campaign=059068226d-Vol_9_Issue_073_News4_11_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_350247989a-059068226d-39393477#ixzz2ybjFdBPu

 

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