February 1, 2023

The Editor Speaks: A hurricane crystal ball is needed

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When you are dealing with nature only God knows what it is going to do. Jesus is the only person I know who has been able to calm storms and as far as I know there is no one that fits that description on this planet today.

The computers we have today that forecast where hurricanes are going are a guide only. There are so many models that do this forecasting and they all come up with different paths and not one is anything like 100%. This is why they are called Spaghetti Models. If you go to our “Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report” and look at the images there from the differing tracking models for Hurricane Irma you will see why they are so named.

Newsmax today has sent us an article illustrating this:

‘Hurricane Models Give Different Fla. Tracks

‘The National Hurricane Center is following a top European computer model showing Hurricane Irma slamming the southeast coast of Florida, while other models are predicting a direct hit on the western side of the Sunshine State.

‘The NHC says that four- and five-day forecasting models are typically off an average of 200 miles from the expected area of impact.

‘”The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty,” the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

‘”The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida peninsula.

‘”The ECMWF (European Model) and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.”‘

So, even with all the technology we have today, we do not 100% know.

I don’t believe we ever will.

So don’t throw away that crystal ball and be prepared.

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