October 23, 2020

Rina may have reached its peak. Invest 97L of no concern except for heavy rain


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As of 10am this morning (26) Hurricane Rina is holding its own and is a borderline Cat. 2/3 storm. Wind shear values from the CIMSS products indicate that there is about 20 knots of shear right over the core of the hurricane with 30 to 40 knots of shear waiting for Rina as it approaches Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday. Additionally, it appears that Rina will continue to track over some very warm ocean waters before the ocean heat content decreases into Thursday. Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather warns: “the hurricane should still be a formidable 115 mph Category 3 hurricane when it impacts Cozumel starting late tonight (26) and continuing through all of Thursday and Cancun during Thursday and into Thursday night. By Friday into Saturday, I think we will see Rina turn to the northeast and continue to weaken, however, notice that there is an area of higher ocean heat content in the southern Gulf of Mexico that Rina could track over during Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

“I do think we will see a track that is very similar to the track that Wilma took, except Rina should be weaker when it crosses south Florida late Friday night into Saturday morning. My thinking is that Rina will track from near Cape Romano in southern Collier County east-northeastward to Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale in extreme southern Palm Beach and northern Broward County. As for intensity when it crosses south Florida, my thinking is an upper end tropical storm or the very most a minimal Category 1 hurricane. The strongest winds and worst weather would be on the right side of the storm and much of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties as well as much of the Florida Keys may receive tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall from Friday night into much of Saturday. So, in closing, it appears that the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula which does include Cancun and Cozumel will be hit quite hard by Hurricane Rina.”

Some good news for us in Cayman. 97L in the Central Caribbean is now not expected to develop. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased and is disorganised. The storm is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air is the main impediment to development. None of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop, and the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) has given 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. NHC is no longer interested enough in 97L to generate computer model forecasts of its track. Heavy rains from 97L should reach Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands by early Friday morning. So carry your umbrella with you.

For the full weather discussion go to Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com and to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/. We wish to thank Crown Weather for the permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them. Also look for the local advisories from the C.I. Government at www.weather.gov.ky






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