September 28, 2020

Nothing new happening in the tropics

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There is nothing new to report in the tropics as of this morning. Tropical Storm Maria is still very slowly moving to the northwest and is struggling with moderate wind shear of 15-20 knots. This is preventing the storm from organising. This wind shear is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 – 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 – 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the centre goes.

As reported yesterday (13), the extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K., bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles.

The NOGAPS and GFS models are still predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 – 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Please visit Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com and to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for all the up to date information on these storms. We wish to thank Crown Weather for the permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them.

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