Invest 94L may affect Cayman Islands as a TS on Saturday (25)
Monday, August 20, 2012 5:47 am
by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather
Invest 94L Located 1200 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
Invest 94L is gradually becoming better organized and is located right around 1200 miles or so to the east of the Lesser Antilles. I do think 
that we will see this system ramp up once it nears and crosses 50 West Longitude where there is warmer ocean waters and a moister atmosphere. This should happen tonight and I think we will see 94L become a depression and then a storm sometime between this evening and midday Tuesday.
As for the latest forecast guidance, they have backed way off on significant intensification from a couple of days ago and now show a weaker storm impacting the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. The NAM model forecasts Isaac to be to track right across Antigua midday on Wednesday with the GFS model forecasting this system to cross Guadeloupe late Wednesday morning. The European model also seems to suggest a track across Guadeloupe during Wednesday.
So, my thinking is for a track right across the island of Guadeloupe around midday Wednesday as perhaps a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm.
Beyond Wednesday, the latest guidance forecasts a track just south of Puerto Rico later Wednesday night, then to the south of Hispaniola during Thursday. The latest GFS model guidance forecasts that this system may impact Jamaica on Friday, the Cayman Islands during Saturday and potentially the entire west coast of Florida from Sunday to Wednesday of next week. The European model forecasts that 94L/Isaac will affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Saturday, western Cuba next Monday and central and south Florida next Tuesday into next Wednesday.
So, here are my additional thoughts: I do think that Invest 94L will strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaac before it reaches the Leeward Islands. As I already mentioned, I think that this storm will track right over Guadeloupe as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm around midday Wednesday with tropical storm conditions likely across much of the Leeward Islands during the day Wednesday.
Once Isaac to be is past the Leeward Islands, I think that it will track just south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and may bring tropical storm conditions to the southern half of Puerto Rico during Wednesday night. I do think that this system will come very close to and possibly go right over the island of Jamaica on Friday night as a moderately strong tropical storm and then affect the Cayman Islands with tropical storm conditions on Saturday.
Beyond the Cayman Islands, a track towards either the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula or the Bahamas seems possible as we head into early next week.
The main concern right now though is the Leeward Islands. Residents and vacationers in the Leeward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions which are expected during the day Wednesday. Additionally, those of you in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should also be prepared for tropical storm conditions, which are expected during Wednesday night.
I am monitoring Invest 94L very closely and will continue to update you on the latest.
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