October 24, 2020

Global models show chance of a Tropical Cyclone next week


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Since yesterday…all global graphicast_at_latestmodels unanimously now a show a Tropical cyclone developing over the central/eastern Caribbean sea mid to late next week but differ when exactly will develop and when it will lift north. Possible tracks range anywhere between 62w and 70w with most of the clustering over the mona passage.

From ambergriscaye

Tropical Disturbance Over The Central Atlantic May Develop Into A Tropical Cyclone As Early As Late Next Week Or Next Weekend In The Central Or Eastern Caribbean

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:03 am

I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical disturbance now located over the central Atlantic near about 42 to 43 West Longitude. Satellite imagery this morning showed some intermittent deep thunderstorm activity and even some hints at very slight cyclonic curvature meaning it could be trying to form a low pressure system. This disturbance is forecast to track across the entire length of the Lesser Antilles on Mondatlanticay and Monday night before moving into the eastern Caribbean. For residents, vacationers and mariners across the Lesser Antilles, look for 25 to 35 mph east winds, 10 to 14 foot seas and squally weather which will include numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain from Monday through Monday night and into Tuesday.

This tropical disturbance is expected to stall over the central and eastern Caribbean as we get into Wednesday and Thursday where a broad low pressure system could morph into a tropical cyclone by late next week as a upper level high pressure system forms on top of it leading to favorable environmental conditions. There are at least a couple of possible scenarios for this tropical cyclone.

The first is for this tropical cyclone to stall or move very slowly around the central or eastern Caribbean for at least several days from late next week through next week and into part of the following week. This first scenario is being shown by the European and the FIM model guidance. In fact, the FIM model guidance which goes out further in time shows this system becoming a strong hurricane in the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola by about November 4th and for it to gradually pull northward into the southeastern Bahamas by about November 6th and 7th.

A second scenario forecast by the GFS model guidance is for this system to gradually spin up into a tropical cyclone late next week into the following week over the eastern Caribbean and for this potential tropical cyclone to track northeastward and impact Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands around November 7th.

Other potential scenarios as laid out by the guidance include a track further west that would impact Jamaica and eastern Cuba around November 7th and a scenario posed by the Canadian model that suggests this system will already be a tropical storm when it impacts the Lesser Antilles and Barbados on Monday into Tuesday. The Canadian model guidance then forecasts this system to track across the eastern and central Caribbean during the middle and late part of next week and becoming a tropical cyclone threat for Jamaica around November 4th.

So, it’s pretty obvious that the forecast guidance all now show a tropical cyclone developing over the central or eastern Caribbean as early as late next week. The big difference in the guidance is where exactly will it develop in the Caribbean and when will it pull northward. There is a range in possible tracks that stretch from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands during the first week of November to a track that takes it over Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba during the first full week of November. It should be pointed out that as of this morning most of the guidance points to a track that takes this system northward across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands between November 4th and November 7th.

Ok, here are my thoughts on this disturbance: Let’s take a look at what is currently going on between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa right now without looking at the forecast guidance. Currently, there continues to be 30 to 50 knots of wind shear across this entire region. The exception is near this disturbance where wind shear continues to be 10 to 20 knots. So, it seems this disturbance is trying to stay within its own little bubble of lower wind shear and should it continue, then development is certainly possible. At this point, I think any development will wait until this disturbance is in the central or eastern Caribbean late next week and next weekend rather than the Canadian model’s forecast of this system quickly becoming a tropical storm within the next day or so. Now, as I mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, satellite imagery this morning showed that this disturbance may be trying to get a little better organized, so the Canadian model guidance’s forecast is one that should at least be considered and it is one that I am not totally discounting.

Residents, mariners and vacationers across the entire Lesser Antilles chain of islands as well as Barbados should keep close watch on this disturbance throughout the weekend. It looks very likely that at the minimum it will bring very squally weather to you from Monday into Tuesday including up to 25 to 35 mph easterly winds, 10 to 14 foot seas and squalls of thunderstorms with heavy rain.

All interests across the central and eastern Caribbean should also be watching this system as well as it has the very real potential of becoming a tropical cyclone as early as late next week or next weekend with a track that could impact anywhere from Hispaniola eastward through Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring this disturbance very closely and will keep you all updated.

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