December 10, 2023

Chance for tropical development in Gulf increasing, too soon for specifics

By WLOX First Alert Weather Team


The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is keeping an eye on a tropical wave over the Caribbean that has the potential to heavy rain to the Gulf Coast, including South Mississippi.

Caribbean tropical wave has medium chance for development in Gulf
As of  Saturday, an unorganized tropical wave was moving over Hispaniola. Due to high wind shear and its proximity to land, little development is expected over the weekend.

However, model data continues to suggest the environment over the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico may become more favorable for tropical development between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. So, the National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for the Caribbean wave to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm to a medium chance.

Plenty of uncertainty remains on whether that will happen.

Regardless if it forms into a depression or tropical storm, it could bring rounds of heavy rain anywhere from Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Until an actual center forms with the tropical wave, weather models will have a tough time picking up on the fine details like timing, intensity, and who could see the greatest impacts.

Tropical Storm Florence

The tropical wave near the Cabo Verde islands has formed into tropical storm Florence, which will remain out over the Atlantic for the next week. There are some indications that it may try to move further west late next week, but still pose no threat to South Mississippi.

A great way to stay on top of the tropics is with the WLOX Weather App. You can get the latest alerts from our weather center as the WLOX First Alert Weather Team analyzes tropical developments that could impact our area. Keep up with the local weather and download or update your WLOX Weather App today.

Don’t have our free weather app? Click here to learn how to get it.

Copyright 2018 WLOX. All rights reserved. 


National Hurricane Center has highlighted the northern Gulf of Mexico for a medium chance for tropical development after Labor day as of Saturday Morning 9-1-18

GFS model run from Sep 1 for Sep 4

European model run from Sep 1 for Sep 4

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