April 9, 2020

2 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 1 dist Atlantic

0
0



Pin It

Sep 2 Sat 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward
at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

Irma appears to have weakened a little during the last several
hours. The eye has become cloud filled once again, and the
convective pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday. A
blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and
ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support
lowering the initial wind speed a little to 95 kt. It is
interesting to note that a ship (BATFR17) passed within 50 n mi to
the west of the center of Irma and has only reported winds of
about 40 kt, indicating that the core of Irma is compact.

The observed fluctuations in strength during the past day or so are
likely to continue for about another day while Irma remains over
marginally warm waters and in fairly close proximity to dry air.
Eyewall replacement cycles, like the one observed yesterday,
could occur, but forecasting the timing and duration of these are
not possible. After 24 hours, Irma is expected to move over
progressively warmer waters and into a more moist environment.
These more favorable conditions combined with low to moderate wind
shear should allow the hurricane to strengthen. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN, and it is fairly
similar to the previous advisory.

Irma is now moving due west at 12 kt. A subtropical high pressure
system to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen and
build westward during the next couple of days. This pattern should
cause Irma to move west-southwestward during that time. Thereafter,
a turn back to the west and then west-northwest is predicted in the
3-5 day time period when Irma moves on the south and southwest sides
of the high. Although the models agree on the overall scenario,
there remains about 200 n mi north-south spread among the
best-performing models on day 5. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the south at the longer-range points, and it is about
halfway between the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.0N 41.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.8N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.3N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.7N 48.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.1N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 17.0N 54.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 18.4N 59.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

CENTER OF LIDIA MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017

Lidia’s convection has a rather amorphous pattern in infrared
satellite imagery this morning, but earlier microwave images
indicate that the storm still has some banding features. The
center has moved inland again and is now located over northern
Baja California Sur. Since the center is over land and cloud tops
are gradually warming, the advisory intensity is set at 40 kt, which
is slightly below the average of the latest Dvorak CI numbers. The
strongest winds are likely occurring well to the north and east of
the center over the Gulf of California. Continued weakening is
expected since Lidia will be moving over the rugged terrain of the
Baja California peninsula and then over the cold waters off the
peninsula’s west coast. Lidia should lose its deep convection over
the cold waters by 36 hours, at which point it would become a
remnant low. The global models generally keep Lidia as a separate
and distinct vorticity maximum through at least 48 hours, but they
then show it merging or becoming absorbed by a larger area of
vorticity by day 3. The NHC forecast continues to show a day 3
point for continuity, but whatever surface low exists at that time
is likely to be a new and separate feature.

Lidia continues to move northwestward (320/10 kt) along the southern
edge of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern
United States, and this motion should continue for the next 36
hours. A bend toward the west-northwest is expected after that time
due to Lidia’s interaction with a mid-/upper-level low currently
located well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Lidia
should re-emerge off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
later today and then gradually move away from land over the next few
days.

Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over
northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through
Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern
United States over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 27.2N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
12H 02/1800Z 28.3N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
24H 03/0600Z 29.6N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 30.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 31.9N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 33.1N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

 

Not available. See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 84%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 12.0  EXTREME  (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 93.0°F  L 80.4°F

Wind direction TODAY:  E  10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 5-10 mph GC

Barometer: 1015:00 mb  Steady  Rain:   Last month: 4.29 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  0.00 in

  16 Rain days in Aug 0 Rain days in Sep   2 days since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 23.40 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Sep 8.2 in.  Average temperature in Sep: 77°F to 90°F

in Sep 84°F

Moon: 86% waxing crescent

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN SEP 2017 – Click to enlarge

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
About ieyenews

Trackbacks

  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News Sep 2 Sat 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The… Link: 2 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 1 dist Atlantic […]

Speak Your Mind

*