April 9, 2020

1 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 1 dist Atlantic

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Sep 1 Fri 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over northern Mississippi.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean just off
the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical
depression early next week while it moves westward at 15 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

IRMA HOLDING STEADY WITH 115-MPH WINDS

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

After rapidly strengthening on Thursday, Irma appears to have
leveled off in intensity. The eye of the hurricane remains
evident in satellite images, but it has occasionally been cloud
filled. The deep convection in the eyewall has been fairly
symmetric, and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have held
steady at 5.5/102 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind
speed remains 100 kt for this advisory.

Although Irma is in a very low wind shear environment, the hurricane
is moving over only marginally warm SSTs and is in close proximity
to dry air. The models respond to these conditions by showing
little change in strength or some weakening during the next couple
of days. Thereafter, Irma is expected to move into a more favorable
thermodynamic environment while remaining in low wind shear
conditions, which should allow the hurricane to intensify. It
should be noted that major hurricanes like Irma often undergo
eyewall replacements that can cause fluctuations in strength, but
unfortunately these internal dynamics can not be forecast with any
accuracy. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous
one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Irma is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt to the south of a
subtropical high pressure system. This high is forecast to
strengthen and build westward during the next few days, which
should cause the hurricane to turn to the west in about 24 hours and
then move to the west-southwest over the weekend. By the end of the
forecast period, Irma is expected to move on the south side of the
high, which should cause the storm to turn back to the west or
west-northwest. Although the models agree on this overall scenario,
they differ slightly on the strength and orientation of the high and
the intensity of Irma. These differences have caused a fair amount
of north-south spread. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope through day 4, but leans toward the
southern end at day 5, in favor of the ECMWF and HCCA models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 18.2N 36.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 38.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.2N 42.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 49.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.5N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 58.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

CENTER OF LIDIA MOVING ONSHORE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR… …HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR

 

Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017

Cloud top temperatures have been warming during the past few hours,
and the convective pattern appears to be losing some organization
as Lidia interacts with the high terrain of Baja California Sur.
Still, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T3.5,
and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Recent ASCAT passes
missed Lidia’s core, but they did indicate a large swath of
tropical-storm-force winds extending over the southern Gulf of
California.

Fixes suggest that Lidia has been moving more slowly during the
past 6-12 hours, and the motion estimate is now toward the northwest
(325 deg) at 7 kt. The storm is embedded between a mid-level high
centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough
southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on
a northwestward course for the next three days. Lidia’s center is
likely to move onshore south of Cabo San Lazaro later this morning
and then cross on/off the western coast of the Baja California
peninsula through 36 hours. While most of the track models are
fairly well clustered, the GFS remains the fastest model, and the
ECMWF is still one of the slowest. The new NHC forecast is a
little faster than the previous one and lies between the GFS and
ECMWF solutions, closest to TVCN and HCCA.

Lidia is expected to weaken over the next couple of days,
especially as the circulation continues to move over the Baja
California peninsula. However, tropical-storm-force winds will
continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula
and adjacent Gulf of California for the next 36 hours. Once Lidia
permanently moves off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula, it will be located over the cold waters of the California
Current and will likely be unable to generate deep convection. For
that reason, it should be a remnant low by 48 hours. After that
time, Lidia will begin to interact with a deep-layer low located off
the coast of California, and it is now expected to dissipate or be
absorbed by that low by day 4.

Since Lidia’s center is expected to move onshore soon, and the
storm is not likely to strengthen in the short time beforehand, the
government of Mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for
southern Baja California Sur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 23.8N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 25.1N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH…NEAR COAST
36H 02/1800Z 28.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 03/0600Z 29.3N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 31.8N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

 

Not available. See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 76%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.9  EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 92.7°F  L 78.8°F

Wind direction TODAY:  E  10-20 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: E 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1016:00 mb  Rising slowly  Rain:   Last month: 4.29 in    Last 24 hrs 0.02 This month:  0.00 in

  16 Rain days in Aug 0 Rain days in Sep   0 days since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 23.40 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Sep 8.2 in.  Average temperature in Sep: 77°F to 90°F

in Sep 84°F

Moon: 78% waxing crescent

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN SEP 2017 – Click to enlarge

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  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News Sep 1 Fri 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather… Link: 1 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H-cane, 1 dist Atlantic […]

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