Rafael headed Northward… …Expected to be near Bermuda by Tuesday (16) afternoon or evening…

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012 1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

AFTER CHANGING LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON…RAFAEL HAS UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EPISODE THIS EVENING.  FLIGHT-LEVEL… SFMR…AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 75 KT.  THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY…AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE NEAR THE CORE.  RAFAEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION…EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR.  SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY…AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT IN 24 HOURS…AND THIS…ALONG WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES…SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH RAFAEL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS…AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR ABOUT 010/10.

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS APPROACHING RAFAEL...

AND THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD

CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS EXPECTED

TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE

IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AS IT INTERACTS

WITH...AND ABSORBS...ANOTHER LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THAT REGION.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 

INIT 16/0300Z 25.1N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

12H  16/1200Z 27.6N  64.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

24H  17/0000Z 31.6N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

36H  17/1200Z 36.4N  59.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

48H  18/0000Z 41.2N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

72H  19/0000Z 48.0N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H  20/0000Z 48.5N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  21/0000Z 49.5N  26.0W  50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP