Forecasters watching possible* storm[s] far out in Atlantic – *TS Don forms
Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area
of low pressure located east-southeast of the Windward Islands has
found a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small
area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of
the circulation. The associated convection is not particularly
well organized, but there is a curved band located to the north
of the center and a couple of bursts have formed closer to the
small circulation center this afternoon. Based on these data,
advisories are being initiated on a tropical storm, the fourth of
the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Don is currently within a
low shear environment and over warm water, so some strengthening is
possible tonight and Tuesday. Once the system enters the eastern
Caribbean Sea, strong upper-level westerly winds and strong
low-level easterly flow are likely to cause the small circulation to
open up into a trough. As a result, dissipation is forecast within
72 hours.
Don is moving westward or 275/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast
to move quickly westward within the strong trade-wide flow for the
next few days. The NHC track is along the southern edge of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus
prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 11.2N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 11.8N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 12.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 12.2N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
By Mike Clary From Sun SentinelAt 8 p.m. Sunday, the system was located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands and producing showers and thunderstorms as it moves west.
The Windward Islands mark the southeastern border of the Caribbean Sea.
Although this system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over the next few days, according to National Hurricane Center forecaster Dan Brown.
After the system passes through the islands overnight Tuesday or Wednesday, conditions in the eastern Caribbean Sea are less favorable for development, Brown said.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
Chances of formation over the next 48 hours were 30 percent, with a 40 percent chance over the next five days.
For more on this story go to: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-reg-tropical-disturbance-atlantic-20170716-story.html
IMAGE: NHC
Related story:
Mike’s Weather Page
NHC watching a couple spots this AM. Invest 95 in orange… and a newer area behind. No models on yellow yet but looks to take a more NW path compared to 95’s westerly track. Spaghetti models on 95 here. EURO/GFS not too excited on these two areas as of now. Will watch!
www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather
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