October 23, 2017

7 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report – 1 H/cane, 1 Dist (Atl & CS)

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Oct 7 Sat 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nate, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles
southwest of the Azores. This system is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT NATE IS A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of
hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb
to the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported
west of the center. The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an
initial intensity of 70 kt. Since the plane left, the satellite
presentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same
value in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently
approaching Nate.

The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low,
while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional
strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight
increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate
to be a little bit stronger just before landfall. After landfall,
weakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96
hours or sooner.

Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic
gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to
force Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24
hours. After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward
with additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much
from the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential
for flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the
Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,
which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these
locations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 24.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Cloudiness and showers over the Northwest Caribbean associated with Hurricane Nate, which is currently over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, will continue to spread across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours. Radar images show no showers over the Cayman area. At 4 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida issued its latest advisory on Hurricane Nate. Nate was located near 24.5 N and 87.0 W or about 345 miles south southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving towards the north northwest at 22 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. THIS HURRICANE POSES NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 75%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 10.7  VERY HIGH  (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 86.3°F  L 75.6°F

Wind direction TODAY:  SSE 15-25 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: SE 5-10 mph GC

Barometer: 1013:00 mb  Steady  Rain:   Last month: 9.03 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  1.38in

  18 Rain days in Sep  7 Rain days in Oct   1 day since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 31.92 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Oct 9.2 in.  Average temperature in Oct: 77°F to 88°F

in Oct 84°F

Moon: 96% Waning Gibbous

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN OCT 2017 – Click to enlarge

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  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News Oct 7 Sat 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nate, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. 1.… Link: 7 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report – 1 H/cane, 1 Dist (Atl & CS) […]

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