October 23, 2017

6 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report – 1 TS, 1 Dist (Atl & CS)

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Oct 6 Fri 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nate, located over the Gulf of Honduras.

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the next day or two
along the southern extent of a frontal boundary, about 900 miles
southwest of the Azores. This low could subsequently acquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics while it remains nearly
stationary over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean during the next
few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Landsea

 

TROPICAL STORM NATE HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A HURRY

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

An Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back
over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum
central pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of
flight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The
surface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a
cyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from
Honduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over
Honduras. Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear.
On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through
the next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one
hurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction
with the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening
temporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period. Once Nate moves inland
over the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely
will dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

Nate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt.
The cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over
Central America and a developing subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same
general north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward
speed for the next 2 days. After that time, Nate should be on the
northern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the
northeast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the
track forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come
to a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least
for the next 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the
envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through tonight.

2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane
intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today
bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday
or Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts
from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from
Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and
tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in
effect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice
given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Cloudiness and showers associated with the interaction of an upper level trough and tropical Storm Nate over the Western Caribbean will continue for the next 24 hours. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman Islands moving towards the northwest. At 7 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida issued its latest advisory on Tropical Storm Nate. TS Nate was located near 16.9 N and 85.1 W or about 294 miles southwest of Grand Cayman and is moving towards the northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. THIS STORM POSES NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM AND ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TUNE INTO OUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 78%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 10.6  VERY HIGH  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 90.3°F  L 78.3°F

Wind direction TODAY:  SSE 25-35 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: SSE 15-25 mph GC

Barometer: 1009:00 mb  Rising slowly  Rain:   Last month: 9.03 in    Last 24 hrs 0.24 This month:  1.38in

  18 Rain days in Sep  5 Rain days in Oct   0 days since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 31.92 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Oct 9.2 in.  Average temperature in Oct: 77°F to 88°F

in Oct 84°F

Moon: 99% Waning Gibbous

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN OCT 2017 – Click to enlarge

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  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News Oct 6 Fri 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nate, located over the Gulf of Honduras. 1.… Link: 6 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report – 1 TS, 1 Dist (Atl & CS) […]

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