27 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TS, 1 Dist
27 Sep Thu 2018
Tropical Report
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.
1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles west of the Azores, remains a powerful
non-tropical low with hurricane-force winds. The associated shower
activity is gradually becoming more organized, and Leslie is
expected to again become a subtropical storm, or possibly a tropical
storm, later today or Friday while it moves west-southwestward at
about 10 mph over the north-central Atlantic. For more information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Beven
KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018
Kirk has not changed much overnight. Although the storm is
producing a large area of deep convection, the cloud pattern is not
very well organized with the center located near the southwestern
edge of the thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 20 kt of southwesterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
passed through the northeastern quadrant of Kirk a few hours ago and
found winds to support the same intensity of 45 kt. In addition,
quality control of a ship report that came in around the same time
also supports that intensity. Another Air Force plane is scheduled
to investigate Kirk later this morning.
A large fetch of strong upper-level westerly or southwesterly winds
are over the entire Caribbean Sea, and Kirk will be moving into
these conditions during the next few days. These very hostile winds
aloft should cause Kirk to steadily weaken, decouple, and ultimately
dissipate in 3 or 4 days. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that
dissipation could occur even sooner. The intensity models are in
good agreement, and the NHC forecast is the same as the previous
one.
Center fixes from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Kirk is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued
west-northwest motion but at a slower pace is expected during the
next few days as Kirk moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level
ridge. The latest models have not changed much, and the NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This
forecast takes Kirk across the Lesser Antilles later today as a
tropical storm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 14.9N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 15.6N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 16.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 16.3N 71.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z…DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rosa, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical cyclone is likely
to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
Forecaster Beven
Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook
Weather in Cayman
SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers are expected across the Cayman area today as an upper level trough currently across the northwest Caribbean, drifts southeast. Light to moderate winds and slight seas are also expected over the next 24 hours due to a weak pressure gradient across the northwest Caribbean.
Humidity: 78% (DOWN from yesterday)
UV: 10.6 VERY HIGH (DOWN from yesterday)
Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See weather forecast top right of website. Yesterday: H 91.7°F L 80.1°F
Wind direction TODAY: E 10-15 mph GC
Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 10-15 mph GC
Barometer: 1014.80 mb Steady Rain: Last month: 1.83 in Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month: 12.21 in 5 days since rain 12 rain days in September
2017 Season Total: 62.94 in 2018 Season Total: 36.22 in
Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)
All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.
Average rainfall in September 8.2 in. Average temperature in September: 77°F to 90°F
Sea Temperature in September 84°F
MOON:
94% Waning Gibbous
TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE
GRAND CAYMAN SEPTEMBER 2018 – Click to enlarge
LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=4421,7428393&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
FOR RADAR IMAGE GO TO: http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Also see Weather In Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/
Moon info and graphic:
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown
Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat
Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.
Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/
Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
