November 11, 2019

27 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report 1 Dist Carib Sea

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 Oct 27 Fri 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make
conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and
merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands
and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Selma, located a couple of hundred miles south of San
Salvador, El Salvador.

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form to the south or
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system early next week while it moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Public Advisories on Selma are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Selma are
issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP5.

Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has become more
concentrated over the past several hours in the western semicircle
of the low over the far eastern part of the eastern Pacific.
Scatterometer data from overnight also indicate that the low has
become well defined, with winds of about 35 kt. Thus, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Selma. This is a rare location
for a tropical storm to form in the eastern Pacific, and this is the
only the second tropical storm to form on record east of 90W that
didn’t come from an Atlantic cyclone (the first was Alma 2008).

A weak ridge of high pressure over southeastern Mexico is causing
the storm to move slowly northwestward. However, this pattern is
forecast to change quickly as the ridge breaks down due to a large
mid-latitude trough dropping into the Gulf of Mexico during the
next 24 hours. This pattern should steer Selma toward the north
over the weekend, although the models are in rather poor agreement
on exactly when that turn occurs. To complicate matters, there is
also some chance of interaction with the Caribbean disturbance AL93,
with the models showing the most interaction, such as the UKMET or
ECMWF, having tracks on the eastern side of the guidance envelope.
The GFS-based guidance shows little interaction and shows a track
more toward Guatemala. The NHC forecast splits the difference
between the model consensus and the ECMWF, and is just east of the
latest NOAA-corrected consensus, necessitating a Tropical Storm
Warning for El Salvador. This is a low confidence forecast due to
the large spread in the guidance and a Tropical Storm Watch or
Warning could be required for portions of the coast of Guatemala
later today.

Selma has a day or so of very warm waters and light-to-moderate
shear in its path. These conditions should promote strengthening,
and the NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the bulk of the
models. It should be emphasized, however, that the most significant
hazard expected with Selma is heavy rainfall. Up to 10 inches of
rain are possible over El Salvador and southern Guatemala, which
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 11.3N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 12.5N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 13.7N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 29/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

 

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Cloudiness and showers will continue across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a cold front currently stationary just east of the Cayman area. The Front is expected to retrogress over Western Cuba by this evening as the broad area of Low Pressure system currently over the western Caribbean moves north over the western Caribbean. Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area moving slowly towards the northwest.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 93%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 8.4  VERY HIGH  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 83.4°F  L 76.5°F

Wind direction TODAY:  NE 20-30 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 10-20 mph

Barometer: 1010:00 mb  Steady  Rain:   Last month: 9.03 in    Last 24 hrs 0.35 This month:  9.67 in

  18 Rain days in Sep  16 Rain days in Oct   0 days since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 40.21 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Oct 9.2 in.  Average temperature in Oct: 77°F to 88°F

in Oct 84°F

Moon: 46% Waxing Crescent

 

 

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN OCT 2017 – Click to enlarge

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  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News  Oct 27 Fri 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low… Link: 27 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report 1 Dist Carib Sea […]

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