December 10, 2018

18 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 TD

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18 Sep Tue 2018

Tropical Report

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles south of the Azores.
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located over the southern New
England.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

JOYCE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

The latest convective burst associated with Joyce is weakening due
to the effects of 35-40 kt of westerly vertical shear and very dry
mid-level air. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little
since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 30
kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken due to the ongoing
shear and dry air entrainment, and the new intensity forecast again
calls for the system to become a remnant low in 12-24 h. Dissipation
of the remnants is forecast in 72-96 h in agreement with the global
model guidance. As indicated in the previous discussion, there is
an alternative scenario where interaction with an upper-level trough
seen in water vapor imagery to the northwest of Joyce maintains
organized convection longer than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now 165/5. Joyce is forecast to move around
the eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across the
eastern Atlantic, with the cyclone or its remnants turning
southwestward during the next 36 h and westward by 72 h. The new
forecast track generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 32.9N 27.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 32.0N 27.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 31.0N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 30.3N 29.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 29.8N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z 29.5N 34.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a
few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear
conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the
system and land interaction is expected to limit the development
potential of this disturbance. However, this system could still
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very
heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of
northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. Interests
in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the next several
days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers along with light to moderate winds and slight seas are expected over the next 24 hours in association with a tropical wave, remnants of Isaac, located over the northwest Caribbean. Cayman. Radar images show scattered showers south, west and north of Grand Cayman which are moving towards the northwest.

 

Humidity: 78%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.8   EXTREME  (Same as yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature –   See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 88.0°F  L 78.2°F

Wind direction TODAY: SSE 10-20 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: SE 10-15 mph

Barometer: 1012.10 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 1.83 in    Last 24 hrs 3.29  This month:  10.32 in  0 days since rain  9 rain days in September

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 : 34.33 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in September 8.2 in.  Average temperature in September: 77°F to 90°F

in September 84°F

 

MOON:

65%  Waxing Gibbous

 

 

 

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN SEPTEMBER 2018 – Click to enlarge

LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST

Moon info and graphic:

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown

Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat

Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.

Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/

Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

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