April 24, 2018

16 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H/cane, 1 TD, 1 Dist (Atlantic)

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Sep 16 Sat 2017

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen,
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs
of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined
center of circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Hurricane or tropical storm
watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later
today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Forecaster Berg

 

JOSE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD… …TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

NOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position
and central pressure of Jose this morning. The center of Jose
passed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface
pressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured. Since the
buoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm,
the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt. Another
reconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of
the max winds.

There is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the
outflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant.
Since it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear
may inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity
guidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has
been lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus
throughout the forecast.

Jose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track,
and the initial motion remains 305/8 kt. However, Jose is still
expected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no
significant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast.
More importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their
previous solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the
forward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2. The new track forecast
is very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Although
confidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model
agreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore
for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane
becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east
of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

The center of the depression continues to be located on the north
side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only
expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed
and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the
opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36
hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the
eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone.
The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but
weakening should begin thereafter. The system should degenerate
into a remnant low in about 4 days.

The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow
mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the
shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this
should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest.
The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48
hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the
guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC
forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of
the ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 12.6N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located a couple of hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located more than 1000
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

  Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Norma has a broad circulation but lacks an inner core. The deep
convection has weakened a little bit and is occurring in a few
cyclonically curved bands spiraling around the center. The initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt in this advisory, but Dvorak numbers,
both objective and subjective, are decreasing. The environment is
favorable for strengthening and most of the models suggest that
modest intensification will occur. The NHC forecast follows such
guidance.

Norma has barely moved during the past several hours, but most of
the global models forecast the building of a mid-level high pressure
system over the Gulf of Mexico, and this pattern should induce a
slow northward motion during the next day or so. As the high builds
westward, it will force Norma to move on a more north-northwesterly
track, parallel to the Baja California peninsula. The confidence
in the track forecast is good for the next day or two. After that
time, the guidance envelope expands considerably and becomes bounded
by the easternmost GFS over Baja California and the westernmost
ECMWF over water. These two models are in competition once again.

Given that the circulation of Norma is large and tropical storm
force winds will likely reach the Baja California peninsula, the
government of Mexico has issued tropical storm warnings and watches
accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.7N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 20.4N 110.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 21.5N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 24.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

WEAK DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An ASCAT pass just before 0600 UTC indicated that the depression
has weakened a little bit. Winds of only around 25 kt were present,
and since the depression lacks a true inner core, I don’t believe
that undersampling is a big concern at this time. The initial
intensity has therefore been lowered to 25 kt. It is beginning to
seem unlikely that the depression will become a tropical storm at
any time. The mid-level humidity and SSTs seem sufficient to only
support continued pulsating convection and none of the guidance
really shows significant strengthening. Since the environment is
not expected to change for the next 3 days, the new NHC intensity
forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression. Sometime
between days 4 and 5, most of the dynamical models show the
cyclone becoming a remnant low, though it could happen a little
sooner than that.

The depression has continued to drift slowly westward. There is
no change to the forecast reasoning, and all of the models continue
to show very little movement throughout the forecast period. The
NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, and
doesn’t show the depression moving faster than 3 kt until after it
becomes a remnant low around day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

Weather In Cayman

Synopsis

Isolated afternoon thundershowers along with light to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will continue across the Cayman area for the next 24 as a tropical wave continues to move west away from the Grand Cayman. Radar images show isolated showers over Grand Cayman and south of Cayman Brac, these showers are expected to move west. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose and newly formed Tropical Depression Fourteen. Please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov for further information. THESE SYSTEMS POSE NO THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Sunshine just makes the day a little better, but it can also cause sunburns. Check the UV Report below to be prepared

Humidity: 92%  (UP from yesterday)

UV: 11.7  EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – See Weather Forecast Top Right of Website.   Yesterday: H 90.3°F  L 76.5°F

Wind direction TODAY:  E  10-15 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: E 10-15 mph GC

Barometer: 1013:00 mb  Rising slowly  Rain:   Last month: 4.29 in    Last 24 hrs 1.23 This month:  3.33 in

  16 Rain days in Aug  8 Rain days in Sep   0 days since rain  

2016 Season Total:  20.23 in      2017 Season Total: 26.77 in

*NOTE: record of rainfall on Grand Cayman (Owen Roberts International Airport) 2016: 27.98 inches or 28.22 inches below the 30 year average rainfall of 56.20 inches. All other readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in Sep 8.2 in.  Average temperature in Sep: 77°F to 90°F

in Sep 84°F

Moon: 16% Waning Crescent

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN SEP 2017 – Click to enlarge

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  1. […] Source: Cayman Eye News Sep 16 Sat 2017 Tropical Report Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras,… Link: 16 Sep Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H/cane, 1 TD, 1 Dist (Atlantic) […]

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