Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located near the northwestern
coast of Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
much of Central America. Although this system could still become a
tropical depression before it moves inland over southern Belize by
early afternoon, any further development is unlikely due to land
interaction. Once the low moves inland, rapid weakening is expected.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds are possible over
portions of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula today before
diminishing by this evening. In addition, locally heavy rainfall,
which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of
Central America during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that was scheduled for this
afternoon has been canceled due the disturbance’s proximity to land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua and southern Honduras
is expected to move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean by this
evening, and develop into a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward near or just
offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS