Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Beryl, located more than 400 miles north of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC GULFSTREAM… …EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

Water vapor imagery indicates that Beryl has become fully entangled
with and embedded within an upper-level cold low, causing the small
cyclone to slow down considerably over the warm waters of the
Gulfstream. Beryl’s appearance in satellite imagery consists of a
small donut ring of shallow to moderate convection that fully
encircles an eye-like feature. Most of the cloud tops in the ring
are around -15C to -20C with a few overshooting towers of -35C to
-45C, or about 28,000 to 38,000 ft, in the southeastern quadrant.
Although that doesn’t sound very impressive, those cloud heights are
fairly typical for a subtropical cyclone given the low altitude of
the tropopause in the inner core of cold upper-lows at high
latitudes. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based
on the tight ring appearance and a subtropical classification of
T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is slowly northeastward or 050/03 kt.
Now that Beryl has become embedded within the upper-low, its future
motion depends heavily on the motion of the now parent upper-low.
For the next 48 hours, the new NHC models guidance shows Beryl and
the upper-low moving northeastward toward Newfoundland within the
mid-latitude westerlies, accompanied by a gradually increasing
forward speed of about 10-15 kt by 36 and 48 hours. The new NHC
forecast track is again slower than the previous advisory track, and
lies between the HCCA and FSSE consensus track forecast models.

The center of Beryl is moving slowly over North Atlantic Gulfstream
waters of about 27.5C and the entire cyclone lies between the
26-deg-C isotherms, which are only about 60 nmi apart from north to
south. The new forecast track keeps Beryl over these warmer waters a
little longer than previous forecasts, which could result in the
regeneration of convection a slight delay in Beryl weakening and
eventually degenerating into a remnant low pressure system than what
is currently forecast. But for now, the new NHC intensity forecast
maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and closely follows
a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models,
which have Beryl dissipating just before reaching Newfoundland in
about 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 38.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 39.1N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 40.5N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 42.6N 59.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little during the
past several hours in association with a low pressure system located
about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the system moves westward. This
system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by early
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

A ridge of high pressure, north of the islands, will support light to moderate winds and seas across the Cayman area. There is also a tropical wave across our area which is not expected to have much impact on our local weather conditions as it moves out of our area later today. Radar images show no showers within the Cayman area.

 

Humidity: 74%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.1   EXTREME  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature – Not available.  See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 92.5°F  L 79.4°F

Wind direction TODAY: ENE 10-15 mph GC

Wind direction TONIGHT: ENE 5-10 mph GC

Barometer: 1015.40 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 11.49 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00 This month:  0.75 in  3 days since rain 4 rain days in July

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 Season Total: 18.21 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 Season Total – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in July 6.9 in.  Average temperature in July: 77°F to 90°F

Sea Temperature in July 84°F

 

Moon illumination:  9%  Waxing Crescent