October 16, 2018

12 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 1 H/cane, 2 TS, 1 Dist

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12 Oct Fri 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael located off the Mid-Atlantic coast of
the United States and is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie,
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm
Nadine, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a day or two and then move slowly westward toward
Central America through early next week. Environmental conditions
are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 

MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES… …ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly
toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near
the end of the cyclone’s life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from
eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,
flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell
very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over
portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and
the Delmarva Peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

LESLIE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery,
although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial
eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity
estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at
80 kt.

The initial motion is now 065/24. The guidance is in good
agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so.
After that, there is a major model divergence. The GFS, ECMWF, and
the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast
motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain. On the other hand, the
UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the
south and then back to the west. Since the previous forecast showed
a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also
follow this scenario. However, it is shifted well to the east of
the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models.
Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low
confidence.

Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island
during the next 24-36 h. After that, the intensity forecast is
dependent on what track the cyclone takes. If it follows the
GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the
Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate. If it follows the UKMET
scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening. Since the track forecast is
closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by
72 h. However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the
uncertainties in the track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 31.9N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

NADINE UNRAVELING…EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

A 0353 UTC AMSR-2 microwave overpass and GOES-16 shortwave infrared
imagery show that the 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear, depicted
in the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, is partially exposing, or
decoupling, Nadine’s surface circulation from the convective mass.
The cloud pattern, however, hasn’t changed during the past 6 hours
and in fact, the cloud top temperatures in the curved band over the
north semicircle have decreased somewhat. TAFB and SAB satellite
intensity estimates remained unchanged, and the initial intensity is
held at 45 kt.

The Decay SHIPS statistical intensity model indicates that the shear
will persist and increase a little more which should cause Nadine to
spin down and dissipate in 48 hours, or possibly sooner. The
large-scale models all show the cyclone opening up into a trough of
low pressure and ultimately dissipating over the deep tropical
central Atlantic at that time. The official forecast follows suit
and is an update of the previous advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/7
kt. A low to mid-level ridge anchored between Nadine to the south
and Hurricane Leslie to the north, should steer the cyclone
west-northwestward and then westward at an accelerated pace until
dissipation. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a little
south and toward both the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 15.2N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.8N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 12 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sergio, which is approaching the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is drifting toward the west-northwest
or northwest, closer to the coast of Mexico and further development
is becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

 

SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Sergio’s cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized
surface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant.
Subjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the
initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.

Weakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea
surface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but
Sergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall
in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio
should quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it
traverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of
Sonora.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast.
This synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the
northeast at an accelerated rate of speed. A 36 hour
post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent
the inland motion of Sergio. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of
the various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update
of the previous package.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.
For more information about this potential hazard, see products from
the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast
office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

 

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

 

A slack pressure gradient across the Caribbean will support light winds and seas across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours. Isolated showers are also expected today as a surface trough lingers over the southwest Caribbean with associated showers occasionally drifting across our area.

 

Humidity: 81%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 11.0   EXTREME  (UP from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature –   See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 88.2°F  L 78.8°F

Wind direction TODAY: NNE 5-10 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: Light & variable 

Barometer: 1012.70 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 12.21 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00  This month:  1.55 in   4 days since rain  7 rain days in October

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 : 37.77 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in October 9.2 in.  Average temperature in October: 77°F to 88°F

in October: 84°F

 

MOON:

 13% Illuminated Waxing Crescent

 

 

 

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN OCTOBER 2018 – Click to enlarge

LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST

Moon info and graphic:

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown

Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat

Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.

Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/

Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

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