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10 Oct Weather in Cayman & Tropical Report, 2 H/canes, 1 TS, 1 Dist

 

10 Oct Wed 2018

Tropical Report

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Michael, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to support gradual development and a tropical depression could form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

 

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past
several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been
136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In
addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.
This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow
associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,
with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast
and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.

The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow
between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough
across the central United States. These features should cause the
hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase
in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or
its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for
the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h
point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern
United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the
previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.

Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael
remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate
vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily
weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical
transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and
this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone
should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly
northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast
has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current
trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should
be rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to
13 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind
damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida
Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should
prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane-
force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

LESLIE NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD… …FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Leslie
has a large and ragged banded eye feature with deep convection most
organized over the northern semicircle. Since the Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt, the
initial wind speed is held at that value. Leslie has another day or
two to strengthen while it remains in low wind shear conditions and
over marginally warm waters. After that time, an increase in shear
and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is possible that
Leslie could become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but confidence
is not high on that occurring. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and it lies at the high end of
the model guidance.

Leslie is now moving southward at 9 kt in the flow on the southwest
side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. A slower south-
southeastward motion is expected during the day today as the
trough pulls away. A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight
as another trough approaches Leslie from the northwest, and that
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through early
this weekend. After that time, the models are coming into better
agreement in showing Leslie being left behind and moving
southwestward on Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds to its
northwest. The NHC track forecast is adjusted southward at days 3
to 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Although the
deterministic models are in better agreement this cycle, there is
still a lot of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members and
confidence in the track forecast remains fairly low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.6N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 28.1N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 29.1N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 30.5N 34.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.5N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 30.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 28.5N 23.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE.

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Nadine continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave images indicate
that the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a
concentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite
imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement
with 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nadine has
about another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable
atmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over
warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN
guidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period.
Thereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in
southwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening. The combination of strong shear,
drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open
into a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner.

The compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the
center is a little to the right of the previous forecast track. A
continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the
next couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the
east-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in.
After that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left
until dissipation. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the right of the previous one due to the more northward
initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 12.1N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 12.8N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.9N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 38.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sergio, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This morning’s conventional satellite presentation reveals little
change in Sergio’s cloud pattern. The majority of the deep
convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some
new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the
initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates.

Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon
as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a
drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving
over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken
further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate
into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over
the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation
could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10
kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific
from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to
accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few
days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will
likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern
Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information
about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather
Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

 

Global Tropics & Benefits Outlook

Weather in Cayman

SYNOPSIS

 

Remnant cloudiness and showers associated with Hurricane Michael will continue to influence the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the north. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Michael, Tropical Storms Leslie and Nadine. For further details please visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov/ These systems pose no threat to the Cayman Islands.

 

Humidity: 73%  (DOWN from yesterday)

UV: 10.6   VERY HIGH  (DOWN from yesterday)

Temperature: Today’s current temperature –   See weather forecast top right of website.  Yesterday: H 87.6°F  L 82.8°F

Wind direction TODAY: SE 10-20 mph

Wind direction TONIGHT: SE 5-10 mph

Barometer: 1012.60 mb Steady  Rain:   Last month: 12.21 in    Last 24 hrs 0.00  This month:  1.55 in   2 days since rain  7 rain days in October

2017 Season Total:  62.94 in      2018 : 37.77 in

Average Yearly Rainfall 56.20 in (Note: National Weather Service 2017 – measured at Owen Roberts Airport GT – was 59.32 in)

All readings are from SOUTH SOUND.

Average rainfall in October 9.2 in.  Average temperature in October: 77°F to 88°F

in October: 84°F

 

MOON:

 3% Illuminated Waxing Crescent

 

 

 

TIDES, SUNRISE, SUNSET, MOON RISE, MOON SET AND MOON PHASE

GRAND CAYMAN OCTOBER 2018 – Click to enlarge

LOCAL 5 DAY FORECAST

Moon info and graphic:

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/uk/georgetown

Atlantic satellite image: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hiatlsat

Description:
The Global Infrared Satellite image shows clouds by their temperature. Red and blue areas indicate cold (high) cloud tops. Infrared (IR) radiation is electromagnetic radiation whose wavelength is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of terahertz radiation and microwaves. Weather satellites equipped with scanning radiometers produce thermal or infrared images which can then enable a trained analyst to determine cloud heights and types, to calculate land and surface water temperatures, and to locate ocean surface features.

Tropical storm data and graphics from National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/

Mikes Weather Page: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

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